Tensions in Iran push oil prices up to $100, yields rise, and Bitcoin falls below $65,000

Bitcoin fell below $65,000, U.S. -Iran tensions pushed oil prices higher to $100, yields climbed

On Thursday, Bitcoin fell below the $65,000 mark on the Bitstamp exchange, hitting a three-day low of about $64,799. Bitcoin fell as tensions between the United States and Iran escalated again and broader risk markets weakened. The decline was accompanied by a sell-off in U.S. stocks, a rise in oil prices, and rising expectations that U.S. interest rates could remain high for a longer period of time.

Traders are divided on whether the recent easing will continue or fade, so their attention has turned to nearby technical levels, including a closely watched moving average area that could affect the next wave of market momentum.

Key Points

As the S & P 500 and Nasdaq fell on Thursday, Bitcoin fell to a three-day low of about $64,799 on the Bitstamp exchange. Concerns about an escalation in the U.S. and Iran have exacerbated risk aversion and pushed up oil prices and bond yields. In parallel with the sell-off, the CME Fed Watch tool showed that the possibility of a 25 basis point rate hike at the upcoming FOMC meeting increased, which is often a downside for cryptocurrencies. Traders are looking at moving average support and $68,000 resistance for clues as to whether Bitcoin can attempt a bigger breakthrough.

Geopolitical shocks to risky assets, Bitcoin closely followed

According to TradingView data cited in the report, Bitcoin hit a three-day low of $64,799 against the U.S. dollar on the Bitstamp exchange. The decline is part of a broader pattern: When stocks and other high-beta assets are struggling, cryptocurrencies are often also under pressure. Pressure on the U.S. market intensified after U.S. President Trump warned that he would blame Iran for the recent attack on Saudi merchant ships by Houthi forces. Trump posted on Truth Social that he was "very disappointed" with the Houthis and mentioned attacks on U.S. ships since 2025. As of the close of the New York trading session, the S & P 500 index fell 1.2%, and the Nasdaq index fell 2.2%. Oil prices also strengthened sharply, with Brent crude oil rising to its highest level since early June, exceeding $100 a barrel. Weak stock markets, rising energy prices and tightening financial conditions-a combination that can be difficult for speculative assets. One of the signals highlighted by The Kobeissi Letter on the X platform is that inflation expectations and interest rates are rising again, reinforcing the sense that macro pressure is back on risk-taking.

Fed expectations shift: 25 basis point rate hike is more likely

Cryptocurrency traders often view changes in the Fed's expectations as a direct factor affecting short-term risk appetite. In this case, the report pointed out that CME Group's FedWatch tool showed that the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike increased before the Fed's next decision. The probability was close to 40% on Thursday, compared with about 12% a week ago. Historically, expectations of further interest rate hikes have tended to weigh on assets that have typically benefited from a loose financial environment. The Kobeissi Letter also noted that the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield hit an 18-month high, viewing the change as a sign of new economic stress. Higher yields can tighten liquidity and increase discount rates, conditions that often challenge the multiples and leverage contained in speculative markets.

Bitcoin traders have different views on future trends

As prices weaken, the market sends inconsistent signals. The report described disagreements among traders over whether Bitcoin's easing could continue or whether recent gains were near a turning point. A commentator called Exitpump argued on Platform X that the "July rally" could end at the end of July and warned traders to prepare for the downside if prices fell below $65,000. Another trader, Jelle, was more optimistic, believing that Bitcoin was "still making progress" and describing a path: breaking through a localized area could open the way to the $70,000 area and could create a new trading range. This divergence of views is important because it determines how quickly traders realign their positions-whether they view the current decline as a continuation of bearish momentum or as a consolidation before the next upside.

Technology Focus: Moving Average and US$68,000 Mark

In addition to macro catalysts, technical bits are currently driving day-to-day trading decisions. The report highlights the view of cryptocurrency analyst Michaël van de Poppe that the 21-week simple moving average (SMA) of approximately $64,073 is a key support level. Van de Poppe said in an X post posted on Thursday that as long as Bitcoin remains above the 21st moving average, there should be room for valuations to rise in the near term. In the same post, he pointed out the "ultimate obstacle" to a larger breakthrough: the $68,000 resistance zone, which he noted had been tested once before and would now face a second test. He also outlined a bullish target that could approach $73,000 if Bitcoin could break through that resistance zone. This framework is important for traders because it sets a clear conditional roadmap: holding support may keep the argument for rising valuations alive, while continuing to break below the key moving average may invalidate breakthrough scenarios.

Looking ahead to the next trading session, traders may focus on macro signals with one eye-particularly Fed expectations and bond yields-and on whether Bitcoin can hold the $64,000 moving average area with the other eye and challenge $68,000 again without another sharp fall. Tensions between geopolitically-driven risk aversion and technical bullish targets will determine how quickly market confidence returns to which direction.