Important information
XRP continues to remain above the key weekly fair value gap of US$1.05 to US$1.10, maintaining the broader recovery structure.
XRP Spot ETF has recorded net inflows for two consecutive weeks, pushing the total asset management scale to nearly US$1 billion.
If prices rebound above the 20-day exponential moving average and institutional demand continues, it may enhance XRP's long-term prospects before 2030.
Market Overview
After weeks of consolidating above one of its most important technical support areas, XRP continues to trade around US$1.09. TradingView data shows that the cryptocurrency is compressed directly above the weekly fair value gap of $1.05 to $1.10, an area that has provided support to buyers since rising in November 2024.
The latest technical indicators show that XRP is approaching another decisive trend. Although short-term momentum remains sluggish, institutional interest continues to improve. XRP spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) once again recorded positive inflows for a week, with total asset management approaching the US$1 billion milestone.
Weekly support continues to defend recovery
Although the XRP has been sideways for several weeks, the weekly chart remains constructive. Prices continue to respect the fair value gap created during the November 2024 breakout period, with buyers repeatedly defending the upper part of the region and not allowing weekly closing prices to fall below support.
This long-term consolidation suggests that market participants are continuing to accumulate positions rather than give up. As long as XRP remains above $1.05, the broader recovery structure remains technically intact.
Another encouraging factor is that despite declining trading activity, deeper pullbacks have been repeatedly rejected. This behavior often reflects increased confidence among long-term investors and their willingness to hold positions during periods of temporary weakness.
Short-term technical indicators point to greater volatility
The hourly chart shows the market is between support and resistance. XRP is currently trading near the lower track of the Bollinger Band at approximately US$1.0849, the middle track of the Bollinger Band is close to US$1.0894, and the upper track is close to US$1.0939.
Meanwhile, the hourly chart parabolic turning indicator continues to print above the price (approximately $1.0930), indicating that bears still have short-term control. However, the Bollinger Band has begun to tighten significantly, a pattern often associated with significant volatility expansions.
The downtrend line extending from the July 22 high (approximately $1.16) continues to limit upward attempts. Breaking through this resistance level may improve market sentiment and increase the probability of moving towards higher resistance levels.
ETF inflows continue to support market confidence
Institutional participation remains one of the strongest bullish catalysts for XRP.
According to SoSovalue data, the XRP ETF attracted a net inflow of US$8.15 million this week based on a net inflow of US$6.78 million last week, maintaining a positive momentum for the second consecutive week. Total ETF assets currently stand at approximately $997.25 million, putting these products just below the important threshold of $1 billion.
Continued ETF inflows suggest that despite the relatively narrow trading range of XRP, institutional investors continue to allocate funds. If conditions in the broader cryptocurrency market improve, continued demand from these investment products could provide additional support.
Derivatives markets show selling pressure is weakening
Recent derivatives data shows that traders have become more cautious rather than aggressively bearish. Trading volume fell 26%, and open interest also fell slightly, indicating that fewer leveraged positions entered the market over the weekend.
Long liquidations totaled approximately US$3.6 million, while short liquidations were only US$136.22 million. This imbalance suggests that recent declines have largely cleared leveraged long positions rather than triggered widespread bearish positions.
Meanwhile, top Binance traders continue to maintain a long-short account ratio of 3.14, indicating that experienced participants still expect prices to rise in the medium term.
Technology Outlook
Several key technology bits will determine the next major trend of XRP. Immediate support remains around $1.0849, with stronger structural support between $1.05 and $1.00. Maintaining these levels would maintain a broader bullish structure.
On the upside side, XRP first needs to recover the hourly resistance level near US$1.0939, followed by the daily 20-day index moving average near US$1.1093. A successful recovery above these levels may turn attention to the 50-day index moving average of US$1.1426, and further upside could extend to around the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level of US$1.1822. Legislative progress surrounding the CLARITY Act, if regulatory progress occurs before the Senate recess, may also affect investor sentiment.
XRP Price Forecast (2026 - 2030)
2026
If XRP maintains support above the weekly fair value gap and ETF inflows remain positive, the cryptocurrency may gradually recover to US$2.10 as institutional demand strengthens.
2027
Improved regulatory transparency, broader cryptocurrency market expansion and continued institutional engagement may push XRP to challenge the $2.90 area.
A stronger cryptocurrency market cycle in 2028
, coupled with expanded adoption of XRP-based financial infrastructure, may bring the asset back to US$3.50, in line with previous major resistance levels.
Growth in liquidity, continued ETF demand and increased adoption of cross-border payments in 2029 may support prices towards US$4.40 if long-term momentum remains favorable.
2030
If XRP continues to attract institutional investment while maintaining broader market leadership, the cryptocurrency could target around US$5.20, marking a significant extension of its long-term recovery.
Conclusion
XRP remains technically well positioned as it continues to defend the weekly fair value gap that underpins the overall recovery. Although short-term momentum is suppressed by nearby resistance levels, weeks of ETF inflows and resilient institutional positions provide encouraging signals for the broader outlook.
The next few months may depend on whether XRP can regain its higher moving average while maintaining support above $1.05. Continued institutional accumulation, improved regulatory transparency and stronger cryptocurrency market conditions may lay the foundation for a gradual move towards higher price targets by 2030.
FAQs
1. Why is the $1.05 to $1.10 fair value gap important?
This weekly fair value gap has repeatedly served as strong support, becoming one of the most important technical areas to maintain a broader recovery of XRP.
2. Why are XRP ETF inflows significant?
Continued ETF inflows indicate growing institutional demand and provide long-term price support even during sideways trading periods.
3. What resistance levels should traders focus on?
Immediate resistance levels include US$1.0939, US$1.1093 and US$1.1426, and bullish momentum is expected to strengthen after breaking through these areas.
4. Can XRP reach $3.50 again?
If institutional demand continues to grow, the regulatory environment remains favorable, and the broader cryptocurrency market strengthens, XRP may return to US$3.50 in the 2028 period.
5. What factors may weaken XRP's bullish outlook?
Weekly closing prices continue to fall below the US$1.05 support zone, weakening ETF demand, declining institutional participation or unfavorable regulatory developments may delay the long-term recovery of XRP.

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