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BTC Polymarket predicts: The probability of CLARITY bill being signed in 2026 drops to 27%
Polymarket traders currently believe that there is a 27% chance that the CLARITY bill will be signed into law in 2026, the lowest level since May, although Wall Street and political support for the cryptocurrency market structure bill continues to grow.
and H.R. Contracts that became legal before the end of the year under Bill 3633 have dropped to 27%, with cumulative trading volume on the market reaching $2,978,442. The percentage in the forecast market is the price a trader is willing to pay for a contract; if an event occurs, the contract will be paid out. Therefore, a reading of 27% means that the implied probability of signing this year is about a quarter.
Polymarket approval rating is 27% -current market preference for H.R. Bill 3633 will become law before December 31, 2026.
This marks the lowest level since May and continues the steadily downward trend of traders starting pricing earlier in the month. The change reflects declining market confidence in the recent signing, but is not evidence of the bill's failure.
Why support failed to boost bets
The contrast is very stark. The Senate Banking Committee approved H.R. on May 14, 2026 by a 15 - 9 vote. Bill 3633, which was passed in the House of Representatives as early as July 2025 by a vote of 294 to 134. Since then, support has been expanded to include Wall Street. According to CoinDesk, BlackRock, Fidelity, Franklin Templeton, Goldman Sachs and SoFi all publicly supported the bill. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon said he strongly supports advancing progress on the CLARITY bill.
However, these supportive headlines did not drive contract prices higher. The House Financial Services Committee noted on July 17 that the bill had passed the Senate Banking Committee two months ago but remained on the Senate agenda, highlighting that the crux was time rather than political will. The Senate's decision to defer consideration of the bill was the main reason for traders to re-price.
When execution risks rise, the forecast market may disagree with public opinion. Universal support for a policy is two different things from the probability that Congress will meet the deadline to complete all procedural steps, and traders value the latter more than the former.
The current reading of 27% continues a trend seen earlier this month, when CoinDesk reported that the probability had dropped to a then-record 32% as the Senate dragged on. Previously, the probability was high, with the recent reading on Polymarket for contracts approved in 2026 at 38%, showing how quickly the market is repricing.
Factors that may affect the market next
The contract specifically targets H.R. Whether 3633 will be signed into law for settlement before December 31, 2026, the source of the decision is Congress. gov. This makes the market extremely sensitive to the legislative agenda. According to CoinDesk, there are only a few legislative days left before the Senate recess on August 8, and unresolved ethics provisions remain an obstacle. Any planned full-house vote, or further postponement, could quickly lead to contract repricing. Comments from Coinbase's Faryar Shirzad and others on the timing of the vote have repeatedly influenced near-term expectations.
Bitcoin fluctuates in sync with the headlines. When the Senate postponed the bill on Monday, the token briefly fell below $63,000 and rebounded, trading at $64,107 that day, up 1.26%. Bitcoin spot price of US$64,107-reference market data related to the policy-driven narrative of decline and rebound.
The overall market sentiment is still cautious, with a fear and greed index of 29, which is in the fear zone. Currently, traders are pricing Senate time risks above the growing support list, and the direction of the next reading may depend on whether the bill makes the Senate agenda before recess.
