Real Vision's Jamie Coutts said Bitcoin's decline was due to lack of liquidity, not Saylor

Jamie Coutts, chief cryptocurrency analyst at financial media firm Real Vision, said that the recent decline in Bitcoin prices is mainly due to tightening global liquidity and falling demand, rather than the impact of any single company or individual. This view comes from Coutts 'participation in a podcast hosted by cryptocurrency strategist Michaël van de Poppe, which discussed the influence of major institutional holders, particularly Michael Saylor's company.

Market sentiment: Liquidity, not companies, is the main driver

Coutts emphasized that global financial conditions, including weak demand and limited liquidity, are affecting Bitcoin and other risky assets. "Market reversals are usually not triggered by a single company, but are driven by overall market forces such as liquidity and overall demand," he explained.

The analyst responded to criticism of Michael Saylor and his company Strategy. The company is known for its large-scale purchases of bitcoin through debt financing. Although Strategy holds a large amount of Bitcoin, Coutts believes its actions have not triggered a market peak or subsequent reversal.

He pointed out that the lack of sustained buying interest from other market participants was a key factor in the decline in Bitcoin prices. He suggested that speculation about the role of individual institutions may ignore broader market dynamics.

Jamie Coutts said: "Liquidity remains the dominant force in determining the price of Bitcoin and other risky assets. The recent decline reflects weakening demand and tightening global liquidity rather than the behavior of a single buyer."

Long-term Holders and Market Cycle Signals

Coutts also analyzed trends among long-term holders, noting that selling among this group peaked in the third quarter of last year. He observed that this behavior usually occurs late in the market cycle.

He cited his company's proprietary risk model, which had previously warned of potential market peaks in advance. Coutts interpreted this at the time as a signal that prices could pull back by 30% to 40%, but he now believes the model may have accurately identified the top of the entire cycle.

Coutts reflected: "A collective sell-off by long-term holders usually means that the market has entered the late cycle. Our risk model sounded the alarm in advance, but in hindsight, it may have accurately captured the peak of the cycle."

Liquidity pressures and structural issues

Coutts points out several factors that lead to liquidity tightening. He said companies in the artificial intelligence field have reduced share buybacks and increased borrowing. At the same time, continued large-scale financing in the private equity market and huge debt issuance by the U.S. government continue to drain excess liquidity.

He described the U.S.'s accumulated government debt as a structural challenge and pointed out that debt has grown faster than available funds in the market. Coutts warned that this imbalance may soon require policy intervention to restore balance.

Looking ahead, Coutts predicts that new funds may flow back into risky assets such as Bitcoin in the next year. But he also warned that the environment could deteriorate further before it improves.

Factor: AI company borrowing| Impact on liquidity: Reducing available liquidity
Factor: Private market financing| Impact on liquidity: Capital absorption
Factor: U.S. government debt issuance| Impact on liquidity: Consumption of excess liquidity

Emerging trends: tokenization and AI proxies

Coutts emphasizes tokenization and autonomous AI proxies as potential drivers of the next cryptocurrency demand cycle. Tokenized assets may migrate more traditional financial transactions to blockchain, while AI agents may generate new demand for blockchain services, especially digital payments and decentralized infrastructure.

If strong new demand meets limited asset supply, the next cryptocurrency cycle may be different from previous cycles dominated by speculation. Coutts maintains that the recovery of Bitcoin and other crypto assets may depend more on the return of global liquidity than on the behavior of individual participants.

Small Dictionary: Tokenization refers to the process of converting real-world assets such as securities, real estate or commodities into digital tokens on the blockchain, which can achieve more efficient transfers, partial ownership and traditional market improvements.