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BTC Bitcoin fluctuates within a narrow range around US$64,500, investors are cautious
Bitcoin prices fluctuate within a narrow range around US$64,500. Investors are cautious about the Fed's hawkish suspension of interest rate hikes, while tensions between the United States and Iran continue to suppress risk appetite. Against this backdrop, a key on-chain Bitcoin indicator has fallen 62% in the past nine months.
Short-term holders are under pressure
Cryptocurrency analyst Darkfost pointed out that Bitcoin short-term holders (STH) are still continuing to realize losses, and the cumulative losses are becoming increasingly significant. According to the latest report, the analyst found that the realized market value of short-term holders has fallen nearly 62% since its peak in October 2025.
Darkfost believes that this decline reflects the typical behavior of short-term holders during market corrections, including extreme panic selling (clearing UTXOs generated at high prices) and continued accumulation during the adjustment process (creating new UTXOs at low prices). This process mechanically reduces the realized market value of the short-term holder group.
Research also showed that the index's retracement in previous bear markets ranged from 70% to 75%. Although the current level is close to this range, there is still uncertainty as to whether the market will continue to consolidate or enter the final adjustment stage.
Earlier this week, Joao Wedson said that based on on-chain data, Bitcoin may be approaching a historically important accumulation area. The Alphractal founder pointed out that the ratio of the realized market value of long-term holders to the realized market value of short-term holders has risen to 3.9, close to a level above 4-a level that previously tended to coincide with the market bottom.
This trend suggests that realized capital is increasingly concentrated in the hands of long-term holders, essentially reflecting stronger investor beliefs, and that the market has entered a stage of deep accumulation as short-term holders leave the market.
Bitcoin's long-term prospects remain controversial
Bitcoin's long-term prospects remain the focus of market debate. For example, analyst Sykodelic made one of the most aggressive predictions to date. In his recent market outlook, the cryptocurrency analyst believes that the current bear market is just a mid-cycle adjustment. By comparing it with the 2011-2013 and 2019-2021 cycles, he predicted that Bitcoin could climb to between $380,000 and $450,000 in March 2028.
This forecast is mainly based on the 200-week simple moving average multiplied by 5 and the 95th quantile statistical band. However, not everyone shares this view, and many skeptics disagree with both the forecast timeline and the methodology behind it.
IBIT leads net inflows of ETF funds
On the institutional side, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF returned to positive value on Wednesday after four consecutive days of net outflows. These funds had net inflows of more than $32 million that day. BlackRock's IBIT led the way with a net inflow of $89.83 million.
Redemptions from other ETFs limited overall gains, including Fidelity's FBTC net outflow of $43 million and Ark21 Shares 'ARKB net outflow of $14.6 million.
