Solana price stalemate at $74, two SOL destruction votes are imminent

Solana prices are stuck at $74, two SOL destruction votes are imminent

Solana's trading price is close to $74, subject to a downtrend line that has suppressed its upward trend since May. Verifiers are expressing support for two proposals that would destroy more SOL and slow new coin issuance. The destruction plan alone is still insignificant compared to daily circulation, which is why another deflation proposal goes hand in hand. BlackRock included Solana in a tokenized money market fund built specifically for stablecoin reserves.

On Tuesday, Solana prices hovered around $73.90, barely moving during the day, while two forces pulled it in opposite directions. Judging from the chart, SOL is squeezed at the end of the three-month downtrend line and cannot break through the $74 to $75 range-a range that has repeatedly reversed it. Beyond the chart, validators have this week expressed support for two governance proposals that would recalibrate the amount of SOL created and destroyed; and BlackRock just deployed a tokenized cash fund on the network. However, all this has not yet been settled. This is the current picture.

The $74 ceiling that has been stuck since May

Draw a line on the daily chart and the rest of the picture becomes clear. The line extends downward from a high of $98.46 set in early May and has repelled every attempt to rebound in three months. Since early July, prices have also formed a downward wedge below it-the high point gradually decreases with each rebound and the low point gradually increases with each correction, narrowing the range to one point. These two lines now meet almost at the right edge of the chart. When the wedge tightens to its peak like this, it means that compression is over, and there is usually a breakthrough within a few days.

The reason why US$74 to US$75 has become the real key point is the chips accumulated in the area. The 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level for the May-June sell-off is at $74.94, one of the standard levels for traders to focus on a stagnant rally after a plunge. The downtrend line passes through roughly the same position. Prices always stagnate a few cents below it. Sellers have three reasons to defend this same dollar range, which is why the current K-line cannot break through this range.

What truly confirms a breakthrough and what will break it

A downward wedge is usually regarded as a bullish pattern, but this trend is like a textbook standard-as the range narrows, trading volume gradually shrinks in July and August. This contraction is exactly what you want to see before you enter a breakthrough. To be honest, there is no confirmation signal yet. The RSI (Momentum Indicator, Value Range 0-100) is at 46, below the neutral 50 level, and is in line with its own signal line, indicating that momentum has not yet turned upward. Wedge only becomes a signal when prices break through the upper boundary, and it has not yet happened.

The key levels I focus on make sense in both directions:

Upward direction: The first hurdle is $74.94, with the trend line firmly above it. A daily close that breaks out of this range, preferably with increased volume, will activate a bullish wedge and open the door to $79.43, followed by a failed July rally of $83.92.

Downward direction: The lower wedge track is close to US$68 to US$69, almost exactly above the Fibonacci level of US$69.39. This is the bottom support. A daily close below that level would disrupt the wedge pattern and bring the June low of $60.41 back into focus.

Everything between $69 and $75 is noise until one party makes the choice. The key signal is the daily closing price leaving this range.

The key level to be concerned about for SOL

US$83.92-where the July rebound failed (Target 2)
US$79.43-the first stop above the trend line (Target 1)
US$74.94-the position of the trend line, the resistance to break through (pivot)
~ US$73.90-the current price, At the peak of the wedge
US$69.39-the lower track of the wedge, must be held (supported)
US$60.41-the June low, if US$69 is out of control comes back into view (failure level)

Why the 14-fold destruction plan itself can hardly change the situation

Now let's see why this week's fundamentals are worth paying attention to. Verifiers have begun to express support for Proposal SIMD-0553, which changes the way transaction fees operate so that heavier transactions pay higher fees, and the extra fees will be destroyed rather than paid to the validator. Solana currently destroys approximately 648 SOLs per day (approximately US$47,000 at current prices). Under the new fee mechanism, the daily destruction volume will jump to between 7500 and 9000 SOLs, or as high as US$650,000 per day. This is close to a 14-fold increase.

But compared with circulation, the impact will shrink quickly. Solana still casts about 60,000 new SOLs a day, with an annual inflation rate of about 3.8%. Even based on the upper limit, the destruction volume of 9000 SOLs only touches a fraction of the 60,000 new SOLs.

Daily flow comparison:
Status: New SOL issued ~ 60,000;SOL destroyed ~ 648; destruction value ~$47,000; annual inflation rate ~ 3.8%.
If SIMD-0553 passes: New SOL issues approximately 60,000 (this proposal does not change);SOL destroys 7500 to 9000; destruction value up to approximately $650,000; annual inflation rate approximately 3.8%(handled by SIMD-0550).

It is this gap that explains why the destruction proposal does not stand alone. A companion proposal SIMD-0550 doubles Solana's annual deflation rate from 15% to 30%. In short, it advanced the network's terminal inflation level of 1.5% from 2032 to about 2029, and cut future issuance of approximately 18.9 million SOLs over six years, worth approximately $1.36 billion at current prices. One proposal destroys more existing assets, and the other slows the arrival of new supplies. Both work together.

Voting must reach the pledge threshold before August 18.

Neither of the two changes has taken effect and is not a foregone conclusion. The current support number is approximately 24.94 million SOLs, mainly led by validator Helius. However, the proposal still needs to attract approximately 40 million SOLs to reach the 15% voting threshold, so that it can advance to formal voting before August 18. Mechanically, SIMD-0553 splits the current fixed signature fee of 5000 lamports into an inclusive fee of 2500 lamports (still paid to block leaders) and a resource fee (0.5 lamports per requested computing unit, fully destroyed). Charging per unit requested rather than unit used is deliberate because it forces senders to stop falsely stating computing budgets that they have never used-a habit that currently blocks transaction sequencing on the Internet.

BlackRock deploys cash funds on Solana, covering one of three chains

There are also actions from the institutional side this week. BlackRock, which manages more than $15 trillion in assets, launched BlackRock's Daily Reinvestment Stabiloin Reserve Facility (code RSVXX) on Monday. Its July 31 prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (previously filed preliminary documents in May) showed that equity registrations cover Ethereum, Tempo and Solana, with Securitize acting as the transfer agent. As a result, Solana is just one of three chains, rather than the exclusive home court as the title implies. The fund only holds cash, short-term U.S. Treasury bonds and overnight repo agreements backed by them, and does not hold any crypto assets. Its goal is narrow and specific: to meet the conditions for qualified reserve assets under the GENIUS Act, so that stablecoin issuers can deposit funds supporting their currencies in regulated, revenue-producing, and on-chain clearing products.

This is consistent with the broader layout that Solana has been quietly building. The distribution of real-world assets (RWA) on the network is approximately US$3.69 billion, a month-on-month increase; the market value of stablecoins on Solana is close to US$16 billion, and the number of holders exceeds 11 million. The tokenized cash fund from the world's largest asset manager is a vote of confidence in its infrastructure, although token prices have not yet responded to it.

What happens next

For traders, the short-term catalyst is not a chart, but an August 18 deadline, when the market will know whether the supply story will come true or whether it will remain in the signaling stage. Even if the proposal is passed, the two will still need to go through their own development and activation timelines, so the tighter token economy effect will gradually emerge over several years, rather than creating a supply shock this quarter. The same goes for BlackRock funds: it adds institutional infrastructure, but accumulates slowly rather than driving prices on the day. This brings short-term judgment back to square one: SOL is being squeezed within the three-month downtrend line, in a tightening wedge, with flat momentum; and whether the daily closing price can break out of the $69 to $75 range will tell you the direction of the next wave.