ONDO maintains 16% gain after rebound in DTCC-outlook for key levels

Summary of key points

If the daily closing price is above US$0.37, the next resistance level will open to around US$0.42.

New addresses and active addresses increased for three consecutive days amid the rising market.

The progress of DTCC and SBI has supported Ondo's business, but has not brought direct income rights to ONDO holders.

The correction has not yet disrupted the overall recovery pattern. ONDO remains above the 50th, 100th and 200th simple moving averages, but buyers have yet to achieve a daily close above the $0.37 to $0.38 resistance zone.

The next daily line is more informative than the original jump

Holding on to the regained moving average cluster will maintain the recovery, while a closing price above $0.3787 confirms that buyers can absorb selling pressure that breaks above.

ONDO encountered major resistance for the first time

This round of gains began near the 200-day moving average and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, where ONDO repeatedly gained support. Prices then regained their 100-day moving average ($0.33), 50-day moving average ($0.34) and 0.5 Fibonacci level ($0.345) in the same rally.

Currently, all three moving averages are below the current market price:

50-day moving average: US$0.34

100-day moving average: US$0.33

200-day moving average: US$0.31

This ranking is constructive but not yet fully bullish. The 50-day moving average is flattening and approaching the 100-day average, but the two have not yet formed a bullish cross. The 200-day moving average is still declining, indicating that the long-term trend has not yet turned upward.

The daily RSI has risen to 61, above its signal value of 49, and hit its highest level since its peak in May. The momentum is strong, but it has not technically entered the overbought area, but the rapid rise also leaves room for consolidation.

The July 15 rally recorded 35.6 million volumes, about three times the recent average and the largest green volume column since May. This confirmed substantial participation in the rally above the 200-day moving average, but a blockage below $0.37 to $0.38 suggests the resistance is still in effect.

New wallet activity continues after the catalyst

Data shared by Sanitation Intelligence shows that ONDO network growth accelerated during the rebound.

Network momentum: New address growth

July 14:367

July 15:562

July 16:754

Trend warning: Adoption is accelerating, with new participants continuing to increase in the past three days.

Daily active addresses also followed the same trend, rising from 1410 to 1971 and then to 2589. This was the strongest three-day consecutive growth since June and more than double the rate recorded in early July.

This persistence is more valuable than the absolute total. News-driven rallies often produce one-time bursts of activity when traders move tokens between wallets and exchanges. Three consecutive days of growth suggest that participation continues as prices rise and then pull back.

These data does not prove that these wallets purchased Ondo shares, deposited funds into Ondo products, or became long-term users. Exchange transfers and speculative positions may also increase address activity. After the instant news cycle that follows the release of a message passes, continued readings will provide more lasting evidence of adoption.

The biggest catalyst for what Ondo and DTCC actually launched

came on July 15, when Ondo launched its first tokenized stock representative based on DTC tokenized interests (for securities held by Depository Trust Companies).

The initial structure covers:

CRCLon: Ondo's tokenized representative associated with Circle shares

SPYon: Ondo's tokenized representative associated with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF trust

Traditional securities remain within the DTC's custody infrastructure. Its tokenization service creates digital interests associated with these positions, while Alpaca Markets connects Ondo to the DTC participating network and supports transfers between traditional and tokenized formats.

This is more accurate than saying that all Ondo tokenized shares are now "supported by DTCC." The initial release connects two Ondo products to securities held by DTC and provides a model that may expand as DTCC services evolve.

Ian De Bode, CEO of Ondo, said the company's infrastructure is designed to "interoperate with, rather than compete with, institutional market infrastructure."

Tokenized exposure does not equal ownership of shares

According to Ondo's official product documentation, Ondo Stocks is a structured note issued by Ondo Global Markets (BVI) Limited. These tokens are designed to provide economic exposure to the corresponding securities and are backed by underlying assets and cash in transit. The holder can redeem the token to obtain the value of that exposure, but it will not appear on the underlying company's shareholder register.

Therefore, they do not enjoy traditional shareholder rights, such as:

voting at company meetings.

Direct ownership of the underlying stock.

Legal shareholder information rights.

The right to demand delivery of corresponding shares.

DTCC connectivity enhances the settlement and custody structure. It does not transform CRCLon or SPYon into traditional shares held directly in the name of the token owner.

SBI partnership extends catalyst beyond U.S. stocks

Ondo and SBI Group announced a strategic partnership focusing on Japanese stocks. SBI is one of Japan's largest financial groups, with assets exceeding US$250 billion, covering securities, banking, insurance, asset management and digital assets.

Strategic synergy: Ondo's collaboration with SBI

Japanese equities: Ondo Global Markets is expected to issue tokenized vehicles linked to Japanese assets.

Distribution: SBI plans to provide Ondo products through its financial ecosystem.

Japanese yen settlement: SBI's JPYSC stablecoins are designed to support settlement and collateral.

Joint promotion: The company plans to distribute products through its customers and strategic partners.

SBI's mature financial channels may allow Ondo to reach Japanese investors without having to build a local distribution network from scratch. Yoshitaka Kitao, CEO of SBI Holdings, described Ondo as a potential "key strategic partner" in the group's efforts to create a global corridor for digital assets.

The agreement is still in its early stages. The companies have not yet identified the first batch of Japanese stocks, provided commercial launch dates, disclosed expected sizes or detailed fees related to issuance and settlement. JPYSC is also currently a planned component rather than a current source of demand.

Business growth will not automatically benefit ONDO

These two announcements consolidate Ondo's position in the tokenized capital market, but do not change the contractual rights associated with ONDO tokens. The Ondo Foundation document defines ONDO as a governance token for Ondo DAO and Flux Finance. Holders can participate in governance, but the token does not automatically provide claims on Ondo Finance's income, profits, dividends or fees incurred by Ondo Stocks.

Therefore, the conduction to ONDO is indirect:

The DTCC model may increase the institutional credibility of Ondo Stocks.

SBI agreement may expand distribution and settlement options.

Greater adoption may increase market demand for the entire Ondo ecosystem.

These developments can affect token prices through expectations, governance needs, liquidity and investor interest in the RWA space. But no contractual cash flow is established for token holders.

Three important levels

The chart supports three measurable scenarios.

Bullish: Breaking the $0.37 ceiling

Daily closing above the 0.382 Fibonacci level will confirm a July rebound. Concern is moving towards $0.42, where historical resistance coincides with the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level.

Benchmark scenario: Consolidation range (US$0.34-US$0.37)

Expect the RSI (currently 61.5) to cool and prices trade between support and resistance. Holding the 50-day moving average ($0.34) is critical to maintaining the recovery trend.

BELOW: Test trend fundamentals

Daily closing below the 50-day moving average ($0.34) will threaten the current pattern. Key bottom levels to defend: the 100-day moving average ($0.33) and the key gathering area of $0.31 -0.32 formed by the 200-day moving average and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. A loss of $0.31 in the daily close would invalidate the current breakthrough and reopen the space for the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level (approximately $0.26).

ONDO's trend is more participatory than typical news day reactions, but a trend reversal has not yet been confirmed. The key difference now is whether prices can recover $0.37 or lose support for reconstruction during the July 15 breakout.