Solana prices stagnate below $80, exploits test fragile recovery

Solana prices stalled near $76 after repeated obstacles at the $80 mark. Two attacks on the ecosystem, weak market momentum and geopolitical tensions together led traders to be cautious.

Summary

Solana prices remain below US$80 due to security incidents affecting trader sentiment. Daily bearish momentum contrasts with positive capital flows around $76 on the four-hour chart. If it falls below US$73, SOL may face the risk of falling to the mid-range of US$70 or even US$65.

According to data, Solana prices were reported at US$76.12 at the time of writing, with intraday fluctuations ranging from US$75.50 to US$77.40, with a daily decline of 0.34%. In the past seven days, the token has only increased by about 0.3%, while the global cryptocurrency market has increased by 3% over the same period.

Security concerns continued to suppress market sentiment throughout July. An attacker stole approximately $20 million from BonkDAO after spending approximately $4.4 million on enough BONK to pass a malicious governance proposal. The proposal received only 7 wallet votes, but the support rate reached 99.9%.

On July 20, Allbridge Core was also attacked. The attacker borrowed $1.12 million from USDC through Kamino, manipulated the agreement's USDC-USDT pool, withdrew more than $1.1 million, and then transferred the funds through privacy tools. Some estimates point to a total liquidity loss of nearly $1.65 million, and Allbridge has suspended the agreement and begun investigating the matter.

Phantom also reported a decline in token transfer and redemption performance on July 12. Account balances and other wallet features can still be used, but this failure has created operational obstacles for users in a week when SOL was already struggling to attract enough demand to exceed $80.

Internet activity did not bring much relief. Trading volume on Pump.fun and other speculative platforms has fallen from previous highs, reducing fee revenue that accompanied Solana's mine-coin boom. The balance of stablecoins on the network may represent deployable funds, but holders need to first convert these assets to SOL before liquidity can directly support the token.

Solana prices must recover US$80 to confirm a bullish reversal

The daily chart shows the main resistance at US$79.96, where SOL's rally in early July was blocked and sellers pushed prices back to around US$75. A daily close above $80 would clear psychological barriers and reopen the path to July's volatile highs of around $83 and the $90 -98 area.

analyst Daan Crypto Trades said SOL is currently in a critical high time frame area and its next response will determine the direction in the coming weeks. "Either the bulls push for a breakthrough, form a higher low here, and try to hit the upper track of the $90 range. Either you are blocked from falling back here and fall all the way back to the mid-range of $65."

Daily momentum has weakened since its rebound in early July. The moving average convergence divergence indicator fell to 0.23, below its signal line of 0.63, while the histogram fell to-0.40. Buyers still control the medium-term structure above the daily supertrend indicator of $69.62, but a bearish MACD crossover puts SOL at risk of testing support again.

On the four-hour chart, SOL is still in a declining parallel channel that has formed since its peak near US$83 on July 3. Prices have hit the upper $76 -77 region and need to confirm that the closing price is above that trend line before traders can regard the latest rise as a breakthrough.

Conflicting kinetic energy readings keep the trend unclear. The Aroon Down indicator was 78.57%, while Aroon Up was 14.29%, indicating that sellers have a stronger advantage in recent trends. However, the Chaikin Fund Flow Indicator was 0.23, indicating that during the measurement period, net capital inflows remained positive despite the lower highs of prices.

The weekly liquidation heat chart shows that concentrated leveraged positions are concentrated in the US$77.50 to US$78.20 area above the market, and another dense range is around US$78.80. Breaking through these levels could trigger short liquidations and help SOL retest $80. The smaller liquidity pool is located around $76.40, while downward clustering in the $74.20 to $75 area could pull prices lower if buyers lose control of $75.41.

A break below US$73 will invalidate attempts at rally

Direct support is at $75.41, with stronger daily support at $73.44. Closing below the latter would weaken the higher-low structure and expose the lower trajectory of the four-hour channel of approximately $71. By then, the supertrend indicator of $69.62 will become the last main line of defense before Daan's forecast mid-range bearish target of $65 returns.

Macroeconomic conditions also threaten this trend. Reports suggest that renewed hostilities between the United States and Iran have pushed oil prices above $90 a barrel and pushed the average U.S. gasoline price back to $4. Higher energy costs could keep inflation high and limit the Fed's room to cut interest rates.

On July 20, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose to about 4.56%, and the U.S. dollar index remained around 100.8. Continuously high yields and a strong U.S. dollar could keep institutional portfolios on a defensive stance and limit capital inflows into volatile altcoins.

For bulls, the clear confirmation signal is still the daily closing price above US$80, and then a successful step back to confirm. Prior to this, SOL is still caught in a tug of war between positive spot inflows on the four-hour chart and weak momentum structures on the daily line, with the US$73 to US$80 range defining the next key range of fluctuations.