Can Solana break through the $80 resistance this week?

Solana prices rebounded to US$78, but a breakthrough still needs to be confirmed.

Solana prices have climbed to US$78 after buyers successfully defended around US$74. However, repeated failures to stabilize above $80 and continued concerns surrounding the BONK governance attack have kept market sentiment cautious.

Summary

Solana prices have recovered to US$78, but must close above US$80 to confirm a breakthrough. SOL trading prices are above four key moving averages, while liquidity clusters can trigger short squeeze. If the support level of US$75.55 is lost, it may expose US$72.50 and about US$67 at the bottom of the June range.

As of press time, Solana (SOL) was trading at US$78.03, rising slightly in the past 24 hours to an intraday low of US$77.42 and a high of US$78.88. The token has recovered about 5% from its July 18 low, but remains below the $82 to $84 range hit earlier this month.

Confidence in the Solana ecosystem was hit after attackers stole nearly $20 million from BonkDAO vaults. The attackers spent approximately $4.4 million on enough BONK tokens to meet the governance threshold, and subsequently passed a proposal with a support rating of 99.9%.

The incident did not endanger Solana's fundamentals, but exposed weaknesses in protective measures within major ecosystem projects. BonkDAO has low voting participation rates, lack of execution delays, and a high concentration of voting rights, allowing a single participant to control voting results.

At the same time, demand for regulated investment products provides some support. The U.S. spot Solana exchange-traded fund recorded a net inflow of US$8.36 million on July 6, its strongest one-day performance in nearly two months. During a full trading week in early July, inflows reached approximately US$5.75 million, and there were no one-day net outflows during the period.

Geopolitical pressure remains an obstacle for high-beta cryptocurrencies. Brent crude oil closed at US$91.01 on July 21 after the US-Iran conflict, while the Houthi threat to the Red Sea route heightened concerns about energy supplies. According to Reuters, the U.S. dollar index also rose to 101.16 as traders stepped up bets that rising oil prices could keep the Fed focused on inflation.

A stronger U.S. dollar and renewed expectations of interest rate hikes usually reduce demand for speculative assets. Therefore, Solana may need both the strength of the crypto market itself and a reduction in energy price pressure to continue to break through adjacent resistance levels.

Solana needs the daily to close above US$80 to open the next range.

The daily chart shows that SOL is currently directly suppressed by the US$78.92 resistance level, which served as support in February, April and early June. Buyers briefly regained that position in the first half of July, but stalled after approaching $83 and prices fell back again.

A daily close above $78.92 will clear the first hurdle, while $80 remains the psychological barrier needed to confirm a breakthrough. After the breakthrough, a band high between $82.50 and $84 in July will constitute the next supply area. A close above $84 could open a path to $90 and a previous range high of around $97.60.

Daily momentum supports re-testing. Aroon's rising line read 71.43%, while Aroon's declining line has dropped to zero, indicating that recent highs are more influential than recent lows. However, the Chaikin Money Flow indicator remains slightly negative (-0.02), indicating that capital inflows have not kept pace with price recovery.

SOL has reached a "critical high time frame area" that will determine whether bulls can attack the upper edge of the range. "Either the bulls break through strongly, form a higher low here, and then try to hit the range high near $90; or they are blocked from falling back here and fall back again towards the mid-range of $60."

The 4-hour chart presents a more constructive pattern. SOL trades above its 20-cycle moving averages ($77.01), 50-cycle moving averages ($76.42), 100-cycle moving averages ($77.60) and 200-cycle moving averages ($75.55). Recovering all four moving averages has returned short-term control to the buyer.

The 4-hour MACD indicator is still above its signal line, although its bar chart has narrowed to 0.13. As a result, momentum remains positive, but buyers need stronger follow-up power to push the price above $80.

Derivative liquidity may help accelerate breakthroughs. The three-day clearing heat chart shows that there is a concentrated short clearing range around $78.50,$79.20 and $80.60. If the price exceeds $79, it may force leveraged short positions and increase market buy orders, creating the conditions for a quick test of $81.

A loss of $75.50 would negate a bullish pattern

Below the market, with the largest nearby liquidity pools located around $76.80,$76.10 and $75. If prices fall below these levels, it could trigger a long liquidation and push SOL to $74-the position where buyers stepped in during the latest pullback.

The 4-hour 200-cycle moving average ($75.55) is the main negative line. If it continues to close below this line, SOL will fall back below its average cluster and expose US$72.50, followed by the bottom of the June range of approximately US$67.

Oil prices above US$90, a further escalation of the situation in the United States and Iran, or another security incident in the Solana ecosystem may strengthen the bearish case. For now, the chart supports another attempt to hit $80, but SOL must close above that level with stronger inflows to turn the rally into a confirmed breakthrough.