Key Points
A potential short squeeze is taking shape
SOL is currently trading at US$78, up about 5% from the July 18 low.
needs to close clearly above US$80 to open up momentum towards the US$82 to US$84 range.
A large number of short liquidations concentrated in the US$79 to US$80 range may push prices further higher.
BONK governance vulnerability extracted $20 million from treasury, shaking trust in the ecosystem.
After falling below $75.55, SOL may fall towards $72.50 and may even hit $67.
Solana is currently trading at US$78.03 and has rebounded about 5% from its July 18 low after gaining support around US$74. Intraday trading prices fluctuated between $77.42 and $78.88, still below the $82 to $84 resistance zone tested earlier this month.
The key price is US$80. If it continues to close above this level, it will pave the way for a surge in July highs of US$82.50 to US$84. If bulls successfully break through this area, the next target will be $90 and near the top of the previous range of $97.60.
Judging from the technical structure of the 4-hour chart, SOL trading prices are firmly above four key moving averages (US$75.55, US$76.42, US$77.01 and US$77.60 respectively). This pattern shows that bulls have an advantage in the short term. The MACD indicator is still above the signal line, but the upward momentum has begun to weaken.
Well-known cryptocurrency analyst Michaël van de Poppe shared his views on the X platform, pointing out that SOL is successfully "holding the low of the range" and believes that it is "only a matter of time before prices accelerate towards $120." Despite the recent sideways trend, his view is still clearly bullish.
Potential short squeeze is taking shape
Liquidation data from CoinGlass shows that a large number of short positions are concentrated around US$78.50, US$79.20 and US$80.60. If the price breaks through US$79 decisively, it may lead to the forced liquidation of over-leveraged short positions, injecting new buying pressure and possibly accelerating the price towards US$81.
The capital flow indicator is currently at-0.02, slightly below the neutral region, indicating that capital inflows have not fully supported the recent price recovery. Confirming an uptrend requires stronger buying volume.
Trades, trader Daan Crypto Trades, gave a concise comment: SOL has reached a "critical high time frame area." The result will be binary-either bulls break through and point to the $90 range, or prices encounter resistance and fall back to the middle of the $65 range.
BONK Treasury vulnerability affects market sentiment
Market confidence was frustrated by a governance breach that stole approximately $20 million from BonkDAO's treasury. The attacker invested approximately US$4.4 million to accumulate enough BONK tokens to participate in governance, and then successfully promoted a malicious proposal that received 99.9% of the votes. Although Solana's core infrastructure was unaffected, the incident exposed governance loopholes in a well-known ecological project.
At a broader macro level, Brent crude oil prices rose to US$91.01 due to escalating geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran, pushing the U.S. dollar index up to 101.16. A stronger U.S. dollar typically undermines investor appetite for risky assets, including SOL.
The U.S. spot Solana ETF recorded a net inflow of US$8.36 million on July 6, setting its best single-day performance in nearly eight weeks, and there was no outflow throughout the week.
If the $75.55 support falls, the downside target will point to $72.50, then near the June low of $67.

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