Forecast Market Trading Volume 2026: Analysis of Kalshi, Polymarket and MetaMask

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Predicted market trading volume in 2026: What is the real situation?

Predicted market trading volume in 2026 has become one of the most watched figures in the cryptocurrency field, but the performance of different platforms is quite different. Currently, the two major players Kalshi and Polymarket are developing in diametrically opposed directions.

According to a recent report, Kalshi's nominal trading volume reached US$17.91 billion at the end of May, setting a monthly record for the ninth consecutive month; while Polymarket's trading volume for the same period was US$7.08 billion, down 21% from its March peak. This is the market pattern before entering August.

Why has attracted much attention

The trend of widening gaps deserves attention because it reveals the actual flow of liquidity and users. At the beginning of July, Kalshi's market share was about 73%, while Polymarket accounted for only 27%. Traders seem to be leaning more towards platforms regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), a trend that comes as Bitcoin itself has been weakening sideways for months.

What is the market reaction?

The current market performance is mixed. According to data, Kalshi's crypto contracts hit a record of US$217.98 million in single-day trading volume on July 15, an increase of about 44 times from January. Polymarket is not completely lagging behind. Driven by the World Cup craze, its international platform handled US$1.9 billion in trading volume in a single week, its best performance since April.

Data comparison summary

The following is a key data comparison compiled based on multiple open sources:

Note: The data in the above table is synthesized from multiple public sources, including platform reports, market tracking tools and independent industry publications, and is designed to provide a more comprehensive overview of forecast market activity.

The bottom line: Kalshi has an advantage in sports and World Cup-related contracts, while its main competitor still relies heavily on political and other event-driven deals.

Participants and Their Views

MetaMask entered this space through the official Polymarket integration, which was first launched on mobile at the end of 2025 and is further expanded this year. The global product head of MetaMask said the wallet simply extends the principle of self-custody to the prediction market, allowing users to use any token on any EVM chain to fund bets. On the other hand, Kalshi revealed that its World Cup trading volume, including the combined market, had reached US$22.42 billion five days before the final ended.

Current status of platforms worthy of attention:

Kalshi is regulated by the CFTC and currently occupies a larger market share. Polymarket remains the preferred platform for trading political and international events. MetaMask itself is not a market prediction, but its wallet-level integration is becoming an important access point.

Place in the larger pattern in August

All this does not exist in isolation. It is closely connected to the ongoing artificial intelligence, real-world assets (RWA) and DeFi narratives in August 2026. Wallet access, such as MetaMask's one-click capital injection, is quietly integrating prediction markets into daily DeFi activities, keeping pace with perpetual contracts and tokenized reward programs.

The future may lead to

Kalshi's next monthly report will reveal whether the World Cup's surge in trading volume can be sustained in the absence of major sporting events. Polymarket said that alleviating platform maintenance issues is one of the possible ways to return to transaction volume growth.

Risks and unsolved issues

Not all situations are clear. Researchers estimate that over a three-year period, fake transactions accounted for nearly 25% of Polymarket's trading volume, a factor that could quietly push up the apparent numbers. In addition, regulatory issues and insider trading cases related to Polymarket remain unresolved.

Glossary

Nominal trading volume: The total dollar value of contracts traded, not equal to open interest. False transactions: Activities that have no real ownership change and are only used to falsely increase transaction volume. CFTC: U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the agency that oversees Kalshi. EVM chain: Any blockchain compatible with the Ethereum virtual machine.