Deadline approaches and CLARITY bill is not on the Senate agenda

CLARITY bill is not on the Senate agenda, and legislative window is narrowed

The U.S. Senate's August 4 schedule did not include the CLARITY bill, allowing lawmakers to advance the crypto market structure bill before the August recess. The time window is further narrowed.

Abstract

H.R. 3633 was not on the official Senate schedule on Tuesday. The bill has not yet been submitted for a motion to close debate, and if leadership takes action on Wednesday, a vote could be held as early as Friday. Polymarket traders put the probability of the bill passing in 2026 at 23%, down 42% from previous times. The controversy surrounding the bill's DeFi provisions has added pressure to this final legislative window.

CLARITY bill absent from Senate schedule

According to the Senate daily news schedule, senators meet at 10:00 a.m. ET on Tuesday and then adjourn until 2:15 p.m. After leadership speeches, the Senate is expected to resume consideration of H.R. The motion to advance the 6500 (a carrier of a continuing resolution) has previously entered the concluding debate stage. The schedule also lists possible votes on the nomination of Erica Schwartz as director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, as well as a set of 74 nominations. But H.R. was not mentioned in the agenda. 3633--The legislation officially known as the Digital Asset Markets Clarity Act.

The omission of the agenda does not prevent the Senate leadership from adding the encryption bill to the agenda in the future. However, as of Tuesday, H.R. 3633 has not yet submitted a motion to close the debate, which means that lawmakers lack the procedural steps needed to move forward with the vote. Analyst Ted Pillows said if Senate leadership waited until Wednesday to file a motion to close debate, a procedural vote could be scheduled as early as Friday.

Thune still wants to push for a vote on market structure

Senate Majority Leader John Thune continues to make digital asset market structure a legislative priority, although government funding remains top of the list. "We have a lot of things to get done, and we'll stay here until it's done," Thun said. When asked about specific crypto bills, he added: "I think the market structure bill will get a vote. As for whether we can advance it, we will wait and see."

Thun has previously described market structure legislation as one of the Senate's considerations, but said funding for the government is the Senate's most urgent task. As the recess deadline approaches, the Senate is currently dealing with ongoing resolutions. If a full house vote is not held this week, the CLARITY bill could face longer delays. Lawmakers will face a limited legislative schedule when they return from recess, and the November election will also be a distraction.

DeFi controversy puts pressure on lawmakers

The schedule was blocked after a dispute between the Blockchain Association and the National Sheriffs' Association over how the latest bill regulates decentralized finance (DeFi). In an eight-page response submitted to Thun and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer on Aug. 3, the Blockchain Association refuted claims that the July 22 draft gave DeFi protocol, software developers, currency mixers and cross-chain bridges a "blanket exemption" from anti-money laundering and sanctions rules. The industry group believes the legislation distinguishes intermediaries that control client funds or transactions from developers who only publish neutral software. Registered brokers, exchanges and other intermediaries still need to comply with compliance requirements.

The National Sheriff's Association argues that protection for developers may leave loopholes that make financial crime investigations more difficult. However, other law enforcement groups support the bill's control-based framework. In a letter released in June, the Blockchain Association received signatures from 160 former national security, intelligence and law enforcement officials.

Polymarket odds drop to 23%

Predicts market traders 'confidence that the CLARITY bill will pass Congress this year has declined. A query about H.R. Whether 3633 will become a legal Polymarket contract in 2026 sets the probability at 23%. The chart shows odds down 42%, with trading volume of approximately $3.9 million. The decline reflects market sentiment rather than official forecasts. The bill still exists, but its path forward depends on Senate leadership submitting a motion to close debate and seeking enough support to start full-house deliberations.

For the U.S. crypto industry, this legislation may define the respective responsibilities of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Currently, the missing Senate schedule and pending procedural steps leave this regulatory framework still waiting for the next legislative window.