Swan CEO: Bitcoin may hit bottom in October, altcoins remain sluggish

The next major trend of Bitcoin may be affected by seasonal patterns

According to analysis by Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten, the next major trend of Bitcoin may be dominated by seasonal patterns. Klippsten told media that BTC may bottom out in October and then rebound to about $130,000 before the 2028 halving event.

Klippsten's forecast framework also includes a potentially painful decline scenario: He believes that Bitcoin could fall to the $57,000 region, or even as low as $53,000, before it rebounds. At the same time, other market analysts are focusing on earlier bear market bottom signals and pointing to key August thresholds based on monthly closing prices.

Core Points

Klippsten predicts that Bitcoin may bottom out in October after peaking above $126,000 in early October 2025, and then recover to about $130,000 before halving in 2028.

In his down scenario, BTC could fall to about US$57,000 or even US$53,000 before a "rapid rebound."

Klippsten believes that the accumulation behavior of long-term holders may cause the time point to arrive earlier than previous cycles. He mentioned that the proportion of supply held by long-term investors has reached a record high.

Markus Thielen of 10x Research said that if Bitcoin's monthly closing price is above $63,000, August may be confirmed as a bear market bottom.

Klippsten believes that altcoins are unlikely to compete with Bitcoin as a "currency", while pointing out that centralized crypto companies may eventually be included in the traditional financial regulatory framework.

Why October may be the "bottom of the cycle" for Bitcoin

Klippsten's judgment that October bottomed out is based on what he said was the cyclical timeline after the peak of the previous bull market. He believes that Bitcoin tends to bottom out about 12 months after each bull market peak. But he also warned that there were risks in relying on only a few full cycles-meaning investors should view this as an assumption rather than a definite timetable.

The time point he mentioned was linked to Bitcoin's performance in early October 2025, when BTC reportedly peaked above $126,000. Klippsten expects the market to bottom out in October from that peak and then enter the next phase of recovery in the broader cycle.

Importantly, Klippsten's view is not simply "up from here." He also pointed to a possible deeper correction before the rally, saying Bitcoin could fall to about $57,000 or a potential $53,000-a sign that any October bottom could come after further weakness rather than immediately.

Possibility of holder accumulation and early bottom out

Klippsten's September-October arguments are based on views he previously raised in the June dialogue. In that interview, he suggested that if long-term holders continue to accumulate supply at record levels, BTC may bottom out earlier than in previous cycles.

According to previous reports, Klippsten linked this view to a "record" level of long-term holder engagement, citing data that long-term investors held 14.7 million BTC. In the latest discussion, he insisted that cumulative behavior could affect the bottom time-one reason why other analysts may focus on confirmation signals earlier than October.

For market participants, the practical significance is that the time indicator may depend on whether the decline period is distribution-dominated or accumulation-dominated. If long-term holders continue to absorb supply, the market may transition faster than strict historical averages suggest-although Klippsten's forecast range still includes potential end-of-cycle risks as low as above $50,000.

Other analysts point to August through simple monthly signals

Although Klippsten focuses on October, not all analysts agree with this month. Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, said that if BTC achieves a monthly closing price above $63,000, August may be confirmed as a bear market bottom.

Thielen's argument is related to the response of certain cyclical indicators to the confirmation of key trends. He said a successful close above $63,000 in August would turn multiple of its indicators bullish-which effectively treats $63,000 as not just an observation figure, but could change the trigger point for the model's stance on market trends.

For investors, the difference between "October likely" and "August likely" isn't just calendar trivia. It could affect how people manage exposure during downturns, how they interpret risk levels and how quickly liquidity is expected to recover. Until BTC passes the monthly closing threshold to clear direction, any month-to-month forecast bottom narrative remains conditional.

Klippsten's view on altcoins: less bets, more regulation

Beyond the timing, Klippsten believes altcoins are losing credibility as a medium of value alternative to Bitcoin. He described them as "basically dead" as currency competitors to Bitcoin and said the "best outcome" for crypto and decentralized finance was to integrate into traditional finance, what he called "TradFi."

When asked which altcoins might still be performing, he cited Hyperliquid as an example, pointing out that the centralized company could ultimately be seen as part of the traditional financial system. Klippsten said that if a centralized company owns tokens, regulators and traditional finance may eventually absorb it and treat it as an exchange and a bank.

This view is consistent with some market observers 'interpretation of institutional involvement: Regulatory pressures and compliance frameworks may determine which crypto products survive and how tokens are constructed. Even if an altcoin gains strong momentum, the question is whether it can evolve into something that fits existing regulatory categories.

Hyperliquid has recently gained significant attention in online and DeFi revenue rankings. Data shows that Hyperliquid generated $5.9 million in revenue in the past week, ranking it as the fifth largest DeFi protocol in the industry by weekly revenue. There are also reports that Hyperliquid's HYPE token has risen 130% year-to-date, while Bitcoin has fallen 28% over the same period.

At the same time, market maker Wintermute said in a July report that institutional participation narrowed the range of altcoins 'rebound. The agency said liquidity tends to be concentrated in assets favored by institutions, while activity within the "long tail" of encryption weakens-suggesting that the dynamics of the "copycat season" may be shifting from widespread rotation to more selective outbursts.

What to focus on: bottoms and triggers, not narratives

Whether Bitcoin hits bottom in August or October, the most actionable signal may be confirmation through month-end closing levels and subsequent movements after a significant sell-off-especially if the accumulation of long-term holders continues to provide structural support. In addition, Klippsten's warning that altcoins "as money" raises a different question for traders and builders: Will performance continue to be driven by liquidity and token incentives, or will regulatory and institutional frameworks gradually reshape the assets that actually exist?