Ethereum surged 30% in a week: What should the bulls do next?

In the game between spot demand and heavy derivatives exposure, Ethereum's next step depends on whether the bulls can regain the old ceiling.

Make no mistake-this round of price fluctuations is more than just a technical rejection. The take-up of U.S. spot ETFs and rapidly rising chain speed are conflicting with inflated futures leverage. If $2,465 cannot be held, the market will fall into an explosive environment.

Key data behind Ethereum's report of $2,430

·$692.6 million: The total net inflow of the U.S. spot Ethereum ETF for five consecutive trading days.
· +61.25%: Increase in weekly trading volume on the Ethereum Decentralized Exchange (DEX).
·$80.22 billion: Total transaction volume of Ethereum futures in 24 hours.
·$6.32 billion: Ethereum spot market transaction volume during the same period.
· $2,466: Ethereum must regain and transform the front resistance ceiling of support.

Breakthroughs require reconfirmation

On the Coinbase daily chart, Ethereum once surged to $2,530, clearly breaking the Fibonacci level of $2,466 (1.0). However, its failure to gain a foothold led Ethereum to fall back to $2,430 at the time of writing. This quick rejection focused on $2,466. If the daily close can return to this threshold, it will signal the market's real acceptance of higher valuations; if it fails, it will be locked into a solid upper resistance level. If the bears continue to control the situation, the bottom target will wait at the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level around $2,270. A deeper pullback will expose $2,100, followed by an important convergence area near $2,000 and $1,986-where the 200-day moving average meets the 0.5 Fibonacci mark.

ETF buyers have entered before the test

ETF tracking data shows healthy institutional demand. From August 17 to August 21, U.S. spot Ethereum products recorded net inflows for five consecutive days. Total absorption reached US$692.6 million, of which US$184 million was injected in a single day on August 21. BlackRock's ETHA products dominated, attracting $536.8 million during the period. This stable accumulation of funds distinguishes this trend from a brief period of retail short-selling, proving that real capital is entering regulated investment vehicles. To be clear, spot inflows do not determine every intraday price fluctuation, nor do they guarantee that $2,466 will be held, but they confirm that this breakthrough attempt is backed by real capital rather than pure perpetual contract leverage.

Derivatives still dominate spot

Derivatives markets remain a major source of friction. Data shows that the 24-hour trading volume of Ethereum futures reached a staggering US$80.22 billion, which is about 12.7 times the spot market trading volume of US$6.32 billion. Open interest is hovering at US$31.8 billion, while daily clearing amounts reach US$286.75 million, and the market is ready for sharp fluctuations in either direction. Ideally, Ethereum will regain $2,466 if open interest stabilizes rather than intensifies. Traders can track risk exposure by monitoring Ethereum funding rate indicators and look for signs of overheating.

On-chain activity rises, but stablecoin liquidity stagnates

Basic network activity paints a constructive picture. Data showed that weekly trading volume of Ethereum DEX surged 61.25% to US$8.28 billion, while the trading volume of perpetual contracts on the chain increased 53.51% to US$10.38 billion. However, a closer analysis of the data revealed a significant divergence: Ethereum's stablecoin market value remained almost unchanged during this period, unchanged at US$147.05 billion (down slightly 0.05%). Higher token prices will naturally push up DeFi's total locked value (TVL) in U.S. dollars, but a stable supply of stablecoins suggests that a large amount of new fiat currency liquidity has not actually poured into the chain. Trading speeds are accelerating, but the underlying cash pool remains stable.

Conclusion hangs below $2,500

Ethereum has proven it has the ability to exceed $2,500, but sustainable gains require more than just a brief surge. The healthier path would be to regain $2,466, establish a calm basis for retesting, and cool derivative leverage while ETF buying continues. If the price falls below $2,270 and open interest remains inflated, the $2,530 upper shadow line will look more like a classic liquidity sweep-going too far, too fast-than a real breakthrough. Underlying cash buying is real, supported by strong ETF inflows and soaring decentralized exchange trading volumes. Now, the chart must prove whether this kinetic energy can turn $2,466 into a permanent floor.