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ETHFI Key Facts
Arthur Hayes set the target price for Ethereum at $10,000, Ethena at $0.50, and Ether.fi at $2 as Maelstrom's speculative end-of-2026 positions, while using structured Bitcoin long positions as anchors for the portfolio. His latest article focuses on the collapse of French banks, where three global systemically important banks accounted for about 20% of repo loans. Hayes believes that the withdrawal of these banks will force the Federal Reserve to expand its balance sheet, and the euro/yen exchange rate is an early warning sign of the beginning of this chain reaction.
Why Hayes thinks the Bank of France will force the Federal Reserve to print money
In an article published on Wednesday, Arthur Hayes set a target price for Ethereum at $10,000, while setting a target price for Ethereum at $0.50 and an Ether.fi at $2, describing the three as speculative bets at the end of 2026. To achieve these goals, Ethereum would need to increase approximately fourfold from $2,508 at the time of writing, Ethena would need to increase approximately threefold from $0.17, and Ether.fi would need to increase more than threefold from $0.59. Hayes, chief investment officer at family office Maelstrom and co-founder of BitMEX, wrote in the article that the portfolio is anchored by long structured Bitcoin positions. These goals are based on an argument about dollar liquidity that is the core theme of the article: the collapse of French banks and their exit from the repo loan market. He wrote that foreign investors hold about 71% of French bank debt, and Japanese institutions ordered to repatriate capital home have become sellers of French government bonds. If the ECB does not step in, he expects the French central bank to break with tradition, print money and buy the debt itself. Hayes cited data from the U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Financial Research as pointing out that BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole and Societe Generale together accounted for about 20% of repo loans. He believes that if these banks withdraw, the New York Fed must expand its reserve management purchase program to ensure the supply of funds in the Treasury market. According to his article, the Federal Reserve has monetized 39% of U.S. Treasury issuance, compared with zero at the end of 2024. He noted that the average monthly balance sheet has expanded by about $22 billion since the program was launched, and noted that if Bessant increases its purchases of long-term bonds, this figure could be close to $100 billion per month.
EUR/JPY as an early warning signal
Hayes described the EUR/JPY exchange rate as a key indicator to determine whether this chain reaction has begun and predicted that by June next year, the exchange rate will fall from about 185 to 140 or even lower. He described U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as "Buffalo Bill Bessent"-"a serial killer chasing the fact that the currencies of so-called allies of the United States need to appreciate against the dollar" and pointed out that in a recent intervention, Bessent sold euros and bought yen through the Foreign Exchange Stability Fund. "Let the euro/yen be your superior smoke alarm, reminding you that the banks of France are about to collapse and that the Federal Reserve will print money to ensure the proper functioning of the government bond market," Hayes wrote. According to CoinMarketCap data, the Bitcoin trading price at the time of writing was US$81,476, up 5.6% in 24 hours; the Ethereum price was US$2,508, up 5.2%.
