Can the United States usher in regulatory clarity this week? Bitcoin's new target of $80,000: Hodle

CLARITY bill depends on Trump's ethical issues

Polymarket data shows that after a number of Democratic senators, including Chris Murphy, Jeff Merkley and Chris Van Hollen, publicly opposed the bill, the probability of CLARITY bill passing this year is only 40%.

A key Senate vote could come as early as this week, with Senate Majority Leader John Thune saying the vote will definitely be held before August 10.

Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren is trying to undermine the vote by highlighting how much money President Trump has received from the industry. She asked Trump to voluntarily disclose his cryptocurrency revenue this year because his 2025 filing showed he earned more than $1 billion from cryptocurrencies last year. The controversy means Senate Democrats are unlikely to support the bill without including a clause in the bill that prohibits elected officials from promoting or issuing cryptocurrencies.

Summer Mursinger, CEO of the Blockchain Association and former member of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, said: "Ethical issues are elephants in a room."

"To my members and what we advocate on Capitol Hill... listen, whatever decisions you make on ethical issues, that's not really something we care about. That is politics, that is Congress, and that is a matter for elected officials. But please don't let ethical issues ruin all of our efforts on the rest of the bill."

Predicts record trading volume in the second quarter, France blocks Polymarket

The cryptocurrency market continued to be sluggish in the second quarter, but the forecast market was a notable exception.

According to CoinGecko's latest cryptocurrency industry report, spot trading volume on the top ten centralized exchanges fell from US$2.7 trillion in the first quarter to US$1.95 trillion in the second quarter. Perpetual contract trading volume on centralized exchanges also fell 10% to US$12.7 trillion, while the stablecoin market fell 1.6% to US$305.1 billion. In contrast, the forecast market posted its strongest quarterly performance ever, with nominal trading volume reaching $113.8 billion.

According to Polymarketscan, Polymarket's World Cup championship market alone attracted more than US$3.3 billion in transaction volume, and contracts related to the 2028 U.S. presidential election also ranked among the platform's largest markets.

Meanwhile, France's National Gaming Authority has ordered Internet service providers to block Polymarket because it believes that forecasting markets is illegal gambling.

Polymarket is blocked in 33 countries... unless, of course, you use a VPN.

Strategies become symbols of the bursting of the Internet bubble: Will history repeat itself?

Senate agrees that SBF should serve sentence, FTX allocates an additional $900 million

The U.S. Senate has passed a resolution opposing an administrative pardon for former FTX CEO Sam Bankerman-Fried. The measure will not prevent the president from pardons, but it reflects bipartisan opposition in the Senate. Bankman-Fried was sentenced to 25 years in federal prison in March 2024 after being convicted on fraud and conspiracy charges related to the 2022 collapse of FTX. After Bankman-Fried applied for a pardon from Trump in June 2026, speculation about a possible pardon by the president intensified. On Friday, FTX Recovery Trust said it would allocate approximately $900 million to creditors in its fifth round of repayments. The trust has so far paid about $10 billion since the company filed for bankruptcy.

Market value of tokenized stocks hits new high of US$2.3 billion

The global market value of tokenized stocks hit a record high of $2.3 billion on Wednesday, as more and more investors seek access to blockchain-based equity products. Data aggregator Token Terminal shared in an X post on Wednesday that the Ethereum network has the largest market share at 34%, followed by BNB Chain (30%) and Solana Network (23%). The largest increases were Kraken Exchange's xStocks, with a tokenized stock value of $507 million, and Binance's bStocks, with a value of $334 million. According to Token Terminal, Ondo Finance remains the largest issuer of tokenized shares, with shares on the chain worth US$955 million. The Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation (DTCC), which manages $114 trillion in assets, last week launched a trial of tokenized securities in partnership with more than 40 financial institutions. Robinhood Chain also aims to be a leader in tokenized stocks, but its trading volume has so far been driven mainly by memecoin.

Is Robinhood Chain's success good or bad for ETH assets?

US and UK will coordinate stablecoin rules, but rules for the Genius Act have not yet been announced

The U.S. and U.K. Treasury have issued four joint recommendations on digital assets. The working group recommended that authorities consider forming a private sector-led group to focus on "testing cross-border use cases for tokenized assets," and recommended that financial regulators in the United States and the United Kingdom and the Bank of England seek a common approach to the regulation of tokenized assets. The statement said that stablecoins "should be fully backed by high-quality, liquid assets in a ratio of at least 1:1," which is consistent with U.S. law. Ironically, a few days later, U.S. regulators failed to meet the Saturday rules-setting deadline for the GENIUS stablecoin Act. Missing the legal deadline will not invalidate the GENIUS Act, but it will result in issuers having less time to comply before the rules take effect in January.

Winners and Losers

As of the weekend, according to CoinMarketCap data, Bitcoin (BTC) was at $64,620, Ethereum (ETH) was at $1,868, and XRP was at $1.09. The total market value is US$2.21 trillion. Among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalisation, the top three altcoins that have gained this week are Pump.fun (PUMP), which rose 36%, Venice Token (VVV), which rose 10%, and Litecoin (LTC), which rose 7%. The top three altcoins that fell this week were DeXe (DEXE), which fell 27%, Lighter (LIT), which fell 17%, and Worldcoin (WRLD), which fell 14%.

This week's forecast

Bitcoin August target price new forecast: US$80,000

A new forecast suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) could hit $80,000 by August if it can break through nearby resistance levels. Macro trends could be the catalyst for the next rally. Cryptocurrency trader and analyst Michaël van de Poppe said earlier this week that BTC/USD successfully held "key" support levels. "It held the key level of $61,000 and flipped the important moving average as support, indicating there is more momentum ahead," he wrote, referring to the moving average trendline. "I expect it to rebound to $68,000 in the next 1-2 weeks, and then continue to rise to $75,000 -80,000 in August." Not everyone agrees with this analysis, including Nichoxbt, who believes prices will fall back below $60,000.

This week's major FUD

Consensus inadvertently outsourced development to North Korean personnel

Blockchain company Consensus accidentally used a software developer with ties to North Korea who had access to parts of its systems within a month. As Drop Site first reported on Friday, Consensus hired a software developer earlier this year through a "reputable third-party service provider" and later discovered that the developer had links to the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. The move led MetaMask developers to temporarily suspend product launches, but said the investigation "has confirmed that no assets or data have been embezzled, no malicious code has been deployed, and there has been no impact on user safety and security."

Kaspersky discovers malware framework targeting cryptocurrency investors

Cybersecurity company Kaspersky said a newly discovered malware framework is targeting cryptocurrency investors. The malware, known as "OkoBot," launches a chain of infection that starts with social engineering strategies such as ClickFix, which tricks users into running malicious commands or provides backdoors to infected devices through trojfied GitHub applications, the cybersecurity company wrote in a report on Wednesday. According to SlowMist, another malware campaign is trying to infiltrate Web3 developers 'devices through fake LinkedIn recruitment opportunities. The attacker contacted blockchain developers through LinkedIn and pretended to be a recruiter. They then sent victims fake GitHub warehouses, claiming they contained codes that needed to be evaluated before interviews, the security company said in a Saturday report.

Base's social bets put it behind in forecast markets and perpetual contracts: Pollak

Base founder Jesse Pollak said he will step down as the leader of Base App, admitting he made "wrong bets" on "social" that caused the chain to lag behind in forecasting markets and perpetual futures. Pollak said in an X post on Wednesday that he had bet that creators, content and messaging apps would drive adoption, but the market had "completely collapsed." Pollak said he now realizes that financial applications are the future direction of the network, with the focus on transactions, payments and AI agents. The Base App will now return to Coinbase and be overseen by cryptocurrency influencer and trader Jordan Fish (better known as "Cobie" on X).