The Genius Act misses the 2026 stablecoin rule deadline, and the market value exceeds US$300 billion

The deadline for the first anniversary of the GENIUS Act has passed, and regulatory rules for stablecoins have not yet been promulgated.

On July 18, 2026, the one-year implementation period stipulated in the GENIUS Act expired, but the final regulatory rules for stablecoins have not yet been implemented, and major issuers and the entire market are still uncertain.

Regulatory delays persist, but market size continues to expand

Although federal agencies are required by law to complete rule-making within one year of signing the bill, there are still eight regulatory proposals that are not yet completed. As of now, no institution has fulfilled its obligations as required, and there are no clear signs of resolution throughout the process.

Meanwhile, the total supply of stablecoins increased by 18.6% over the past year, climbing from US$259.7 billion to US$308.1 billion. Chain data on July 19 showed that the market briefly exceeded US$320 billion in May, and then fell back to just above US$300 billion before the regulatory deadline.

The U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) submitted a wide-ranging proposal in March covering reserves, capital requirements and custody standards. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and the National Credit Union Administration (NCUA) have proposed different options for prudential supervision and licensing, respectively. The U.S. Treasury Department focused mainly on state regulatory coordination in its April proposal.

Highly concentrated stablecoin market share

Tether's USDT and Circle's USDC together account for approximately 83% of the stablecoins in circulation. Therefore, any upcoming rules will directly affect these two major issuers. It is worth noting that World Liberty Financial's token USD1 grew into the fifth largest stablecoin after only one year of circulation.

Stability coins (July 2026) market share: USDT is approximately 50%, in operation, waiting for rules;USDC is approximately 33%, in operation, waiting for rules; USD1 does not provide a specific share and has grown to the fifth largest.

New stablecoins emerge amid uncertainty

The absence of regulatory rules has not deterred innovation. In the first year when the GENIUS Act came into effect, several institutional stablecoins expanded their market presence. PayPal launched PYUSD, BlackRock launched BUIDL, Ripple launched RLUSD, Paxos launched USDG-all while the regulatory framework was still in place.

These issuers already occupied significant market share while the rules governing their operations were still under institutional review.

Small Dictionary: The GENIUS Act is the first comprehensive federal law in the United States for the payment of stablecoins. It stipulates requirements for reserves, licenses, redemption deadlines, and capital standards, and is jointly supervised by multiple federal agencies.

Congress designed the GENIUS Act so that all provisions automatically take effect on the earlier of January 18, 2027, or 120 days after regulators issue final rules, no matter how incomplete the rule-making process may be.

The key provisions of the draft proposal stipulate that stablecoin issuers must hold reserves in a 1:1 ratio of cash and short-term treasury bonds, redemptions must be processed within two working days, and meet a capital requirement of US$5 million. However, since these rules are still in the draft stage, they do not yet have legal effect.

Challenges faced by issuers and new timetable

Stabiloin issuers are affected differently by the proposed rules due to different operating structures. For example, Circle's USDC may face stricter capital and reserve requirements after the rules are finalized. Tether's launch of USAT, which is designed to comply with U.S. regulatory requirements, also reflects its attempt to adapt ahead of time to new standards, which have now been delayed for at least six months.

No agency has issued final rules before September 20, 2026, which means that January 18, 2027 will be the date when the GENIUS Act takes full effect, even if agencies are still behind schedule in rule-making.

Amid continued regulatory uncertainty, the stablecoin market added US$48 billion to supply, highlighting the scale of transactions and settlements in the absence of final U.S. rules.

stablecoins support the activity of every decentralized exchange and power most of the infrastructure of the cryptocurrency market, all in the absence of a specific federal legal framework. The significant growth in this area suggests that market demand remains strong despite protracted regulatory delays.