Euler Price Forecast: Shorts squeeze hits the market, EUL rebounds strongly

The real reason for the surge in searches for EUL price forecasts

The recent significant increase in searches for EUL price forecasts has nothing to do with listing announcements, but the rapid clearing of leveraged positions. This token, which has been trading sideways for months, has just recorded one of the most violent unilateral movements in recent times. Those short sellers who poured in find themselves on the wrong side many times during every clearing window.

Is this the beginning of a real trend shift, or is it a short squeeze that will fade when forced buying dries up? This is a problem that often appears in current reports of rebound in the crypto market. The following is the actual situation based on charts and on-chain data.

Key Points

As of the latest data, EUL is trading at approximately US$1.74, an increase of more than 70% in 24 hours, and a weekly increase of nearly 87%. The 4-hour chart clearly breaks through the downtrend channel that has lasted for several months. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) for this time frame is 92.96, which is in the deeply overbought region. The weekly RSI is only 46.04, still below the neutral midline, forming an abnormal deviation from such a huge weekly increase. Immediate resistance at the 4-hour level is at $1.862, followed by $2.252. Support is around $1.086, followed by $0.935 and $0.830. Liquidation amounts within both the 12-hour and 24-hour windows reached approximately $509,000, which means that almost all forced selling throughout the day occurred in the last half of the day, and that short bears most of the losses each time. The circulating supply is 23.92 million EUL, and the total supply and maximum supply are both 27.18 million EUL, so there is still a moderate oversupply. Holder data shows a high degree of concentration: the top 100 wallets control more than 93% of the tracked supply, and the majority of the top 10 are agreement-controlled contracts rather than external giant whales.

Token Contract

Contract Address: 0xd9Fcd98c322942075A5C3860693e9 f4f03 AE07b
Standard: ERC-20

EUL Current Status

EUL's latest trading price is between US$1.72 and US$1.75 (depending on the specific trading platform), up about 73% in the past 24 hours. The intraday range ranges from a low of $0.9805 to a high of $1.75. During the same period, the transaction volume was approximately US$60.28 million, and the market value was US$41.22 million. The ratio of transaction volume to market value exceeded 126%. For a token of this size, the turnover rate is extremely high. The total supply and maximum supply are 27.18 million EUL, and the circulating supply is 23.92 million EUL. This means that about 12% of the supply is still not in circulation, a moderate oversupply compared to fully circulated tokens, but far less than the dilution pressures common to earlier projects. The historical high of $15.89 was set about a year ago, and the current price is down about 89% from its peak. On the other hand, the historical low of $0.7228 was set about four months ago, and the current price is up more than 135% from that bottom. In other words, this is a coin that has experienced a sharp decline and is currently rebounding strongly from its recent bottom, not a currency near an all-time high.

Drivers of EUL's price rise today

There is no single catalyst announcement behind the rise. Euler Labs has been actively promoting product updates in its lending market, including tools that allow users to preview expected return on equity before opening positions, and such feature updates often attract new trading interest into DeFi lending tokens. Coupled with the increase in overall risk appetite in the cryptocurrency market this week, similar to the momentum described in the report, the conditions for violent fluctuations are already in place before the liquidation tide adds fuel to it.

Technical Analysis: 4-Hour Chart

On the 4-hour EUL/USDT chart, prices compressed for several weeks in the downtrend channel before a decisive K-line broke through, moving from about $1.475 to a high of $1.798, before finally stabilizing around $1.745. This K-line alone represents an increase of 18%. The RSI for this time frame is 92.96, which is in an extremely overbought region. The 50-cycle index moving average is at $1.056, well below current prices, confirming that the short-term trend has turned strongly bullish, but also highlighting that the rally has stretched too much. Resistance is at $1.862, with a larger wall of resistance at $2.252. Underneath support is around $1.086, with a $0.935 area and a deeper bottom support at $0.830.

Technical analysis: Weekly chart

Looking at the longer time frame, the situation is more gentle. This week, the K-line opened at close to US$0.944 and closed at around US$1.765, with a weekly increase of nearly 87%. It is in a clear upward channel that has been maintained since the end of last year. The weekly RSI is 46.04, still below the 50th midline. This is the key contradiction in the chart: the huge weekly gain has not even turned weekly momentum into bullish based on the RSI's own indicators. This pattern leaves enough room for buyers to continue to enter, but also suggests that this round of rally has just begun. Resistance above the price is at $2.421, then $2.824. Lower support is at $0.941, then $0.712, and if the overall structure collapses, a deeper bottom is around $0.311.

Empty rolling reality

The liquidation data is highly consistent with the short-squeeze narrative. In the past hour, a total of $246.95 million was liquidated, of which short positions accounted for $212.62 million and long positions only $34.33 million. Within 4 hours, the total liquidation reached US$452.82 million, once again dominated by short positions (US$340.24 million versus long positions of US$112.58 million). Stretching the time to 12 hours and 24 hours, the total amount remained almost unchanged, both at approximately $509,600, which means that almost the entire day of clearing activity occurred in the most recent half day. In both windows, shorts account for a larger share each time. This pattern of forced short covering superimposed on natural buying is a typical feature of short squeezing rather than slow sucking.

Token economics and holder concentration

EUL's contract is ERC-20 token. The total supply and maximum supply were 27.18 million EUL, and the circulation supply was 23.92 million, leaving a moderate unlocked oversupply rather than a fully diluted state. Holder data shows significant concentration risks. The top 100 wallets control 93.13% of the tracking supply, and 55 giant whale wallets alone (accounting for 1.05% of the total holders) control 86.51% of the market value. The Gini distribution coefficient is 0.988, close to the maximum inequality value. There are 20 wallets each holding at least 1% of the total supply. However, the top ten addresses are not all external speculators. The largest is an unmarked wallet (14.37%), followed by the Binance Exchange wallet (12.50%), then the Euler protocol multi-signature wallet (5.61%), and then the Euler OFT Bridge Adapter contract and another multi-signature wallet. A significant proportion of the centrally supplied tokens are stored on exchanges and protocol-controlled contracts rather than simply hoarding giant whales, a nuance to consider before interpreting the raw concentration data.

Liquidity and Exchange Trading Volume

Liquidity is at a healthy 2.30% relative to market value, which is better than many small-cap tokens, but futures trading volume is highly concentrated on one platform. Binance is far ahead, followed by Bybit, Bitget, MEXC and Bitunix. This single-exchange dominance in derivatives means that leveraged positions, rather than extensive spot demand, are the main force driving this round.

Call, benchmark and bear scenarios

The following are scenario estimates based on the current chart structure and are not financial recommendations or deterministic forecasts.

Bullish scenario: Daily closing above $1.862 will open the way to $2.252, which is expected to occur in 7 to 14 days. The probability is about 30%, depending on the extension of the short squeeze and the weekly RSI rising above 50. Failure condition: The daily closing price falls back below $1.45.

Benchmark scenario: As the short squeeze subsides, prices will hold for 7 to 30 days in the range of approximately US$1.10 to US$1.90. The probability is the highest, about 45%. Failure condition: The weekly closing price clearly breaks through the boundary of the range.

Bear scenario: The momentum weakens and prices fall back to the US$0.935 support area. If overall market sentiment cools, US$0.830 may be tested more deeply within 30 days. The probability is about 25%. Failure conditions: Trading volume remains above $1.60 for more than a week.

Price forecast table

Time frame| bearish| reference| Bulls
24 Hours| $1.55| $1.74| US$1.90
7 days| $1.20 for| $1.65| US$2.10
30 days| $0.90| $1.50 a| US$2.50
Long term| of $0.60| $1.80| $4.50

These numbers are not deterministic forecasts, but are ranges built based on the support and resistance levels already on the chart.

Main risks

The most prominent risk is an extremely overbought situation in the short term, with the 4-hour RSI approaching 93 and leaving little room for a cooling-off period. About 12% of the total supply is still not in circulation, and there is moderate oversupply pressure. The concentration of holders is serious. Although some of them are concentrated in agreement-controlled contracts and exchange wallets, the Gini coefficient of 0.988 still indicates that the actual circulation is very thin. The dominance of futures on a single exchange means this round of gains is currently driven by leverage rather than widespread spot accumulation. In addition, the distance from historical highs reminds us that the long-term trend remains a deep retreat that has not yet been reversed. Industry-wide fluctuations can completely cover specific trends in tokens, so EUL's charts should always be interpreted in conjunction with broader crypto market news, rather than viewed in isolation.

Glossary

RSI: A momentum indicator from 0 to 100. A value above 70 usually indicates oversold; a value below 30 indicates oversold.
EMA: A moving average that tracks trends and gives higher weight to recent prices.
FDV: If all future tokens have been circulated, the corresponding market value.
Gini coefficient: An indicator that measures the degree of distributive inequality, ranging from 0 to 1.
Liquidation: When a trader's loss exceeds his margin, a leveraged position is forcibly closed.
OFT adapter: A cross-chain bridge contract that allows tokens to be transferred between different blockchain networks.
Failure level: The price point at which the trading argument is deemed wrong and should be abandoned.