MORPHO prices are hard to break below $2, despite a surge in online purchases

MORPHO fluctuates between $2.05 resistance and $1.96 support

Whale trading volume and exchange outflows both hit multi-month highs this week. Upbit opened a Korean won trading pair, and Robinhood launched Earn products on Morpho. Tokens are flowing out of exchanges at the fastest rate since February.

On July 27, MORPHO's trading price was close to US$1.96, which has fluctuated within the tightening range for three consecutive weeks, while the on-chain data showed the opposite trend. Sanitation recorded its strongest whale buying since October and its largest exchange outflow since February. At the same time, Upbit launched a Korean won trading pair, and Robinhood's Earn product runs based on Morpho. The agreement completed $175 million in financing in June.

Prices are still well below their highs near $2.30 in early July. The gap between demand and price is the key at present.

There were 68 whale transactions in a single day, setting a new high since October.

Sanitation counted 68 whale transactions in a single day with an amount of more than US$100,000. This is the busiest day since October 2, 2025, indicating that big players are resuming a large number of actions rather than holding back. On the same day, another 337 MORPHO wallets were created, the highest growth since March. The most significant data came from the exchange, where 4.35 million MORPHOs were withdrawn that day, the largest outflow since February.

Tokens leaving the exchange often go into wallets where they are held for longer periods of time, reducing supply that could impact the market in the short term. This in itself reduces selling pressure, but does not create buying demand, a distinction that is crucial for subsequent trends.

Whale transactions (more than US$100,000): 68 transactions in a single day, the highest since October 2, 2025.
Newly built MORPHO wallets: 337, the highest since March 15, 2026.
Exchange outflow: 4.35 million MORPHOs, the largest since February 4, 2026.

Upbit, Robinhood and US$175 million in financing were implemented in a centralized manner within one month

Upbit opened the MORPHO/KRW trading pair at 18:00 Korean Standard Time on July 25, and only accepts Ethereum recharges. After the news was announced, before the official start of Korean won trading, prices had risen by 4.8%, and daily trading volume increased by more than 400%. A few weeks ago, on July 1, Robinhood launched the Earn product based on Morpho, allowing eligible U.S. customers to lend USDG stablecoins through self-managed wallets at an annualized rate of return of approximately 7%. The first vault was managed by Steakhouse Financial, with approximately 27.7 million funded accounts supporting the launch of the product. The agreement also launched Morpho Midnight on Base for fixed-rate lending. All of this builds on the US$175 million financing completed by Morpho in June, which was jointly led by Paradigm, a16z crypto and Ribbit, with a valuation said to be close to US$2 billion, with network-wide deposits exceeding US$11 billion.

Here are reasons why these benefits have not yet been reflected on the chart. There is a delay in the impact of each catalyst on the token. Upbit provides direct Korean won trading pairs for retail investors, but the fiat currency flowing in through new channels takes days to accumulate, rather than a K-line. Robinhood Earn expanded the deposit base of the agreement, which was first reflected in the total lockup value before touching on the spot demand for governance tokens. The pipes are filling, but the tokens are still waiting for transaction volume.

The US$1.92 to US$2.05 range is the core of the current trading.

Prices encountered strong resistance after hitting the US$2.15 to US$2.30 range in early July, and then gradually fell amid the shocks that continued to narrow. The moving average has leveled off above prices, with the 50-period moving average at $1.98, slightly above the 20-period moving average of $1.96. When moving averages are so intertwined, subsequent breakthroughs often come quickly.

The short situation currently dominates. Lower highs, repeatedly tested support, and prices limited below two moving averages all point in the same direction. A four-hour close below $1.96 would put the $1.92 support to a test, and a loss of that level could open up space to fall near the July 22 low of $1.85. Although the bull scenario is weak, it still exists because the bears have repeatedly tried to break the position without success. Bulls need to increase their closing price above US$2.05 in 4 hours before they can reopen the upper supply zone, because a silent and tentative breakthrough failure is a trap repeatedly set by this range. The RSI is at 48.70, in the middle position, indicating that momentum does not dominate both long and short sides. Such a balanced market could fluctuate within the range for longer than most people expected.

Supply area: US$2.15-US$2.30, resistance area in early July, upside target after breakthrough.
Resistance: $2.05, suppressing all rallies in the second half of July.
Bottom of the range: $1.96, buyer defends every fall, decision line.
Lower support: US$1.92, the first downside target after the break.
Low support: US$1.85, a flash low on July 22. If US$1.92 fails, there will be deeper downside.

Euler's 74% rise highlights MorPHO's insufficient response

Upbit also launched its rival lending token, Euler, a day after MORPHO launched, which rose by about 74% within 24 hours due to a significant increase in transaction volume. In contrast, MORPHO only made a 4.8% increase on similar catalysts, which appears moderate. The key signal in the next few trading days will be whether the outflow trend can be sustained, because a single day of withdrawals is usually not enough to establish direction, and only two to three consecutive days of outflows have real significance. Before the accumulated demand on the chain is transformed into a purchase order that can exceed US$2.05, the consolidation trend will continue and the direction of breakthrough will remain full of uncertainty.