MemeCore Price Analysis: The downward wedge is about to break through

MemeCore Price Analysis: The downward wedge is close to breaking through

MemeCore is hitting the upper edge of the downward wedge after a single-day gain of nearly 10%. This pattern is an attempt to rebound after the June crash rather than a continuation of a previous upward trend. Prices are still trading below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and the overall trend remains bearish. If a breakthrough in the upside is confirmed, the target points to the resistance area of US$1.49 to US$1.51; while a loss of US$0.90 support will reopen the door to the June low.

MemeCore is currently trading around $1.20, having previously gained nearly 10% in a single day, a trend that is particularly prominent when there is little change in a week. The daily chart shows that the descending wedge has reached its peak, where such patterns usually choose direction, while today's candle chart pushes prices directly to the upper boundary of the structure. Momentum has been recovering since the oversold conditions in July. M is still mired in a bearish structure that began with one of the fastest crashes of the top 50 coins in this cycle, with a market value of nearly $1.6 billion, well below the level it started in the summer.

Why are current conditions still set when June plunged 75% in a single day

On June 25, M lost about three-quarters of its value in a single day, falling from the $2.80 to $2.92 region to intraday lows around $0.50, before stabilizing around $0.70. This trend wiped nearly $3 billion off the token's market value and fell below the $1 billion mark for the first time since its early listing. What is striking is the thin liquidity on the trading day. Amid such a huge volatility, M only changed hands about $21 million, an unusually low figure that suggests there is very little liquidity to support prices during the decline.

No vulnerabilities, hacking or contract violations have ever been found. With no clear on-chain triggers, attention turned to warnings issued months ago by on-chain investigator ZachXBT. As early as April, he questioned why Kraken listed M as spot trading in July 2025 and how it passed the exchange's due diligence, while accusing insiders of manipulating prices to bring its market value to US$6 billion, compared with a fully diluted valuation of US$18 billion. He also pointed to suspicious withdrawals of approximately $7.9 million that flowed from Kraken to 18 newly created wallets. None of this constitutes evidence of the reasons for the June sell-off, and the MemeCore team did not respond publicly at the time, so the fairest interpretation is that a token with concentrated ownership and thin liquidity behaves exactly when large holders start selling on a thin order book.

This background is critical on the technical side, as the entire structure on the current chart is an attempt to rebound from that capitulation low rather than a continuation of a previous uptrend.

Two wedge lines now meet at US$1.20

Since the bottom formed in July, M has drawn a declining wedge over both the 4-hour and daily time frames. The upper boundary connects the high in early July through a series of lower highs; the lower boundary tracks the higher lows that slowly rise after the bottom of the crash. The two lines have converged to one apex, just near the current price, which is why today's push for the upper boundary is worth noting and why the direction choice seems to be close.

A declining wedge is usually seen as a bullish pattern, and the rebound in RSI also supports this trend. But there is one caveat that needs to be clearly stated. The wedge formed in May and June did not break upwards in a textbook manner; prices fell directly below their lower boundary in the June crash. There was a failed wedge on the same asset, which is not a reason to deny the current pattern, but it is a reason to wait for a confirmed breakthrough rather than enter early.

The moving average clearly describes the background. Prices are below the 50-day simple moving averages ($1.51) and 200-day simple moving averages ($2.17), and the shorter moving averages are below the longer moving averages. This is a ranking of downtrends, meaning that every rebound is fighting the mainstream trend until it turns out otherwise.

How little was the crash retracted?

Anchoring the Fibonacci retracement from a historical high of $4.84 to a crash low of $0.46 outlines the upper resistance that any rebound must overcome. M is currently below the shallowest level in the grid-the 0.236 retracement level ($1.49), which shows how small the actual retracement decline has been.

The key levels are as follows: The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level is at US$3.17, which is the main upper resistance, close to the bottom of the old range; the 0.382 retracement level is at US$2.13, slightly below the 200-day moving average; the 200-day moving average is at US$2.17, which is a long-term trend resistance; the 50-day moving average overlaps with the 0.236 retracement level at US$1.49 to US$1.51, which is the first resistance convergence area; The current price is $1.20, which is inside the wedge and is testing the upper boundary; the bottom of the wedge is about $0.90, which is the support and bullish failure point; the 0 Fibonacci retracement/crash low of $0.46, which is the June surrender low.

The convergence area worthy of attention is the US$1.49 to US$1.51 range, where the 0.236 retracement level overlaps with the downward 50-day moving average, forming a resistance wall. This is the position where substantial supply will be first encountered after a breakthrough, and it is also the point where it is most likely to be initially rejected. On the downside, a wedge bottom of about $0.90 is the effective boundary for maintaining a bullish structure. A decisive close below this line would reopen the door to a collapse low of $0.46.

The RSI is climbing but has not yet reached key levels

The daily RSI, which had read around 46, has rebounded above its signal line (around 39.6), recovering from the deep oversold condition that accompanied the June decline. Today's positive line pushed it higher to near the 50th midline, a level that distinguishes between easing selling pressure and confirmation of buyer control. Breaking through and holding this level will be a sign of confirmation of momentum, which is lacking in the current pattern.

Two reasonable paths to the future

There are two reasonable paths from here. If the upper boundary of the wedge is clearly broken and the upper boundary is held, the convergence area of US$1.49 to US$1.51 will become the first test point, and a strong volume breakthrough of this resistance level will be the first real evidence that the rebound is sustainable. Another possibility is to lose the bottom of $0.90, which would invalidate the wedge pattern and shift focus back to June lows. Given that the macro trend is still pointing downward and that the wedge shape on the chart finally broke downward, it is more conservative to trade a confirmed breakthrough rather than lay out in advance.

M is currently in a ready state. The momentum rose slightly during today's trading session, and the pattern is biased towards bullish. However, the setting is in a firm bearish trend, with heavy resistance above, and there are such structural failures in recent history. The upper boundary is being tested. The next few daily closings will determine whether this trend continues.