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PEPE PEPE faces selling pressure: whale reduction and exchange supply increase
Chain data shows that PEPE is facing increasing selling pressure. Major holders have reduced positions, exchange supply has increased, funding rates have turned negative, and open interest contracts have fallen, all reflecting weakening trader confidence. If key support levels fall, prices could fall further by 20%, reaching a lower level.
Market sentiment is weak, PEPE is under pressure
PEPE remained stable on Tuesday after falling nearly 5% in the previous trading session. Despite a brief stabilization, many market indicators are still biased towards bears. Retail participation slowed down and speculative demand continued to weaken. CoinGlass data showed that open interest in futures fell nearly 15% during Monday's decline. Lower open interest usually means fewer active positions in derivatives markets, a trend that usually reflects weakening trader confidence rather than new buying interest.
The funding rate has also turned negative and is currently around-0.0081%. This reading suggests that bears are currently in a more favorable position than bulls. On-chain data sends another warning. Sanitation reported that the main holder, the whale, has reduced exposure in recent weeks. The supply controlled by top-level addresses fell to 164.65 trillion PEPEs from 171.12 trillion PEPEs at the end of June. Balances in large non-exchange wallets also fell.
At the same time, exchange reserves continue to climb, with available supply increasing to approximately 18.94 trillion PEPEs from 18.62 trillion PEPEs last week. Higher exchange balances usually mean greater selling pressure. More available tokens may make price increases more difficult to sustain. Taken together, these signals suggest that confidence has weakened in multiple market sectors: retail traders have become cautious and large investors are reducing their holdings rather than increasing their exposure.
Can buyers hold on to key support?
Technical aspects are still under pressure. PEPE is trading below its 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages, which pose strong resistance in every attempt to rebound. Market attention is currently turning to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level (approximately US$0.0000279), which is an important support area for buyers.
If this level is lost, prices may be exposed to the low of the previous band (approximately US$0.0000233). Based on current prices, this means about 20% downside. Momentum indicators also support the bearish outlook. The directional movement index shows that bullish momentum is weakening. Although the positive DI is still higher than the negative DI, the average trend index has dropped to around 18, indicating that the strength of the trend is weakening.
If buyers can regain momentum, a rebound is still possible. The first resistance is near the 50-day EMA (about $0.0000285), and the stronger resistance is near the 100-day EMA (about $0.0000311). If prices break through these two obstacles, short-term prospects will improve. Until then, sellers still have the advantage, while traders are closely watching whether key support levels can withstand the next test.
