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BTC 
DOGE Dogecoin is approaching a key support range, and whether the historic rebound can be repeated is facing a test.
Dogecoin (DOGE), as the largest meme coin by market value, is approaching a historical support range that triggered an 887% increase. At the same time, the possible unwinding of a US$250 billion yen carry trade has added uncertainty to the prospects for a rebound.
Key Points
Dogecoin is approaching the price range of US$0.048 to US$0.063, which has brought about increases of approximately 224% and 887% respectively in previous market cycles.
If buyers can hold on to this support area, the rebound may first point to US$0.088 and then face resistance around US$0.11 to US$0.12.
Potential interest rate hikes by Japan and the United States may once again trigger the unwinding of the yen carry trade and put pressure on risky assets.
Dogecoin Support Test
On August 4 (Tuesday), the trading price of Dogecoin was approximately US$0.07, down approximately 85% from the peak near US$0.48 at the end of 2024, while still below the moving average of the main weekly index. Shorts still dominate the overall trend.
The token is falling towards the range of US$0.048 to US$0.063, about 30% below current levels. This range served as an accumulation area between 2022 and early 2024.
Testing of the range in June 2022 generated an increase of about 224%, and then after returning to the range again, there was an increase of 887%, with the price rising all the way to $0.48. The current weekly relative strength indicator (RSI) is about 32.7. If the decline continues, it may fall below the oversold threshold of 30.
Macro risks faced by Dogecoin
If support holds, an initial rebound may target the 20-week moving average (approximately US$0.088), and then test resistance between US$0.11 and US$0.12. If the weekly close below US$0.05, this rebound pattern will be weakened.
The Bank of Japan kept its policy rate at 1% in July after raising interest rates by 25 basis points in June, but committee member Hajime Takata supported an immediate rate increase to 1.25%. After Japan's two-year bond yield rose to 1.51%, the market was betting about 40% on the probability of a September rate hike.
The Federal Reserve poses a second risk factor, and traders consider it may raise interest rates again by 25 basis points in September. CME FedWatch data shows that the probability of raising interest rates has risen to about 62.5% from 55.8% a week ago.
Simultaneous tightening of monetary policy by the two countries may push up the yen and accelerate the unwinding of yen financing transactions. In the wave of liquidations in August 2024, Japan's Nikkei index fell nearly 20%, the S & P 500 index fell more than 5%, and Bitcoin (BTC) also fell about 15%.
The size of the affected leveraged positions is estimated to be approximately 40 trillion yen (approximately US$250 billion).
The current technical form of Dogecoin stems from the continuous decline from a high of approximately US$0.48 at the end of 2024 to approximately US$0.07 on August 4, with a drop of approximately 85%. This historical trend makes the $0.048 to $0.063 range the market's next major test, rather than evidence that a reversal has begun.
