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PENGU predicts short-term recovery

2026-08-18 00:41:40
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PENGU rebounded after holding the US$0.00560 -0.00600 demand area and recovering key technical levels.

Bulls need to break through US$0.00661 and US$0.00709 to strengthen short-term recovery prospects. The decline in open interest and the neutrality of spot flow indicate that the market is cautiously optimistic rather than a confirmed drawing stage.

The Fat Penguin (PENGU) is beginning to show signs of recovery after several weeks of continued selling pressure. Buyers seem ready to defend key support again. The latest round of rebound has pushed PENGU to list a number of short-term technical indicators. However, broader trends still pose a major challenge for bulls. If we can continue to break through nearby resistance levels, it is expected to strengthen the recovery momentum. Traders now face a core question: Can PENGU turn this rally into a lasting trend reversal?

PENGU recovers key technical positions

PENGU traded at approximately US$0.00665, up 1.40% in 24 hours. The token also recorded a nearly 8% increase in the past week. The performance shows that buyers have regained some confidence after a long period of weakness. The current market value of PENGU is approximately US$418 million, and the circulation supply is close to 63 billion units, showing a considerable market size.

The daily chart shows that buyers are defending the demand area of $0.00560 to $0.00600. This defensive move established a short-term bottom after weeks of selling pressure. Subsequently, buyers pushed PENGU to a higher technology level and improved the daily structure. The rally also sent the token above the 20-day index moving average. After weeks of weakness, this breakthrough represents a meaningful improvement in technology.

The latest rebound also pushed PENGU above the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level (approximately US$0.00632). Maintaining that level could encourage buyers to seek further gains. Continuing to stand above $0.00632 will also strengthen the short-term bullish pattern. However, traders still need to consider a more macro market structure before expecting a full trend reversal. PENGU is still below the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day exponential moving averages.

Derivatives activity shows cautious market sentiment

Derivatives data provides another important clue to PENGU's current market structure. Open interest has fallen sharply since exceeding US$300 million in October last year. The decline suggests traders have reduced leverage exposure in a long-term downtrend. Open interest briefly recovered to about $160 million at the end of April before falling back again.

The current open interest in contracts is approximately US$67.34 million, indicating limited speculative participation. Despite recent price improvements, traders seem to be more cautious. Lower leverage reduces the risk of aggressive liquidations during volatile trading hours. However, declining participation may also limit the strength of a sustained recovery. Therefore, PENGU needs fresh capital to support more powerful breakthroughs.

Spot exchange traffic also supports caution. In previous months, there have been large exchange inflows during periods of sharp price declines. This activity suggests that some holders are transferring tokens to exchanges in case of potential sell-offs. These traffic coincides with a period of significant weakness in the PENGU market. However, net flows have recently become neutral.

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