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BTC Altcoin bull market expectations heat up: Open interest exceeds Bitcoin for the first time
As Altcoin's Open Interest exceeds Bitcoin for the first time since December 2024, the market's forecast for the altcoin bull market has attracted widespread attention. Analyst Ted compared this change with the market environment during previous periods of strong altcoin performance. At the same time, Matthew Hyland said that the next round of crypto market expansion cycle may exceed the 2020 - 2021 market in size and duration.
Open interest data provides support for bull market expectations
Ted pointed out that the total open interest in altcoins currently exceeds Bitcoin. This is the first such reading since December 2024. Open interest measures the number of derivative contracts that have not yet been settled and reflects the positioning of market positions rather than the direction of those positions.
Ted (@TedPillows) tweeted on September 5, 2026:
"Do you still remember what happened to altcoins after December 2024?
This distinction is crucial because both long and short contracts are counted in the total. Increased leverage can strengthen price volatility, but it also increases liquidation risks. Therefore, the assertion that altcoins are bullish also needs to be supported by spot demand and broader market follow-up.
Hylad expects a longer cycle and a higher increase
Hyland expects that the next phase of market movements will last longer and the increase will be higher than the 2020-2021 cycle. He pointed out that since 2016-2017, the performance of crypto assets relative to the stock market has never expanded so significantly. His altcoin bull market forecast is based on this long-term gap, which he believes will spawn a larger market cycle.
Chart resistance causes overall breakthrough not yet confirmed
provides charts showing that the altcoin indicator it tracks is currently around US$207.19 billion. The indicator recently experienced a drop in selling pressure in the range of US$210 billion to US$211 billion. Currently, this indicator is slightly higher than the previous day's closing price despite sellers 'insistence on resistance.
Short-term support is around US$207 billion, with a lower support range between US$205 billion and US$206 billion. If it falls below US$207 billion, the downtrend may extend into this lower range. On the contrary, if it can rebound above US$209 billion, it may show a resurgence of buying interest.
The overall technical form remains neutral and short until the chart clearly breaks through the resistance level. Open interest data alone cannot confirm a bull market in altcoin, as leverage may increase on both long and short sides. Only when prices continue to stand firm above US$211 billion can clearer evidence of market acceptance be provided.
