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DOGE Investor Mark Yusko: The full value of Dogecoin depends on one thing-Musk never sells.
Investor Mark Yusko said that the full value of Dogecoin is only based on one premise: Elon Musk never sells. Yusco made the comparison as he explained why he compared SpaceX's recent IPO to the memein-two assets that, in his view, are supported almost entirely by the beliefs of its most prominent supporters.
compares SpaceX to Dogecoin
Yusko stated that Elon Musk and Mark Cuban hold the vast majority of the total supply of Dogecoin, while a wider range of retail holders believe the token has real value on this basis. "If Musk sells a dogcoin, dogcoin will go to zero," Yusko said, arguing that the price exists only because the largest holder chose not to sell.
He compared SpaceX's IPO structure to Dogcoin, calling it a similar believer asset. In his view, SpaceX is less extreme because it does run an actual business with a functioning satellite division. Still, Yusco believes that the underlying dynamics are familiar: small circulation, concentrated positions, and a wave of fanaticism are supporting prices.
Why Yusco believes SpaceX is overvalued
Yusco said SpaceX has issued only 4% of its shares, with the remaining 96% firmly locked in and held by Musk and a group of venture capitalists. He believes that this structure, coupled with an exemption clause that allows SpaceX to be included in major indices without achieving profitability, is effectively introducing retail and pension funds into an overpriced security. "In my opinion, it's theft," he said."I mean, it's essentially that."
He pointed to Tesla's trend as a preview of what could happen to SpaceX. Jusco said Tesla's stock rose about tenfold after a similar boom and short run, and then stayed sideways for the next four and a half years, as revenue fell and free cash flow turned negative.
Yusko's mathematical problem
Yusko said SpaceX's initial valuation of as high as $2 trillion was mathematically impossible. He believes that buying SpaceX today is very different from buying Apple or Microsoft shares in the early years, because those companies have grown from small businesses to infrastructure. By contrast, SpaceX's valuation has reached a scale where early investors would have to achieve the kind of return they expected, the company would have to reach about half the expected U.S. GDP.
He said SpaceX's artificial intelligence ambitions-including building a data center in space-were not technically feasible in the short term and expected the company's cash flow to remain negative for years to come. Yusko said he expects the stock price to fall sharply once the lock-in period limit expires and insiders start selling.
