Shiba Inu price forecast: Long positions are liquidated, SHIB popularity cools down

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Shiba Inu Price Prediction: Why a correction after a breakthrough and what may happen next

A token that just broke through a multi-month consolidation range last week has now given up most of its gains, and those chasing the highs are paying for it. No one wants to admit that they bought at a high point. However, the liquidation data does not care about anyone's wishes, which is why the search volume for Shiba Inu price predictions has increased again.

So, is this the end of the breakout market, or is the market purging weak holders before the next round of gains? This issue was seen everywhere in discussions about meme price forecasts this week. Here are the real signals given by charts and wallet data.

Key Points

According to the latest data, the trading price of SHIB is approximately US$0.00005048, down approximately 9.3% in 24 hours.

The 4-hour chart broke through the downtrend channel, but then cooled. The RSI for this time frame is currently 58.01, falling back near the neutral zone after soaring above 70.

The weekly RSI of 43.75 is still below the 50th midline, indicating that a larger trend has not yet been confirmed to reverse.

The clearing amount reached US$915.24 million in 24 hours, and long positions accounted for the majority of the clearing in each time period, from one hour to the entire day.

Circulation and total supply are approximately 589.49 trillion SHIB, but the actual coin supply is closer to 999.98 trillion. About 41% of them have been destroyed to dead wallets.

Holder data shows a high degree of concentration: the top 100 wallets hold 83.16% of the tracked supply, while most of the largest wallets are held on exchanges, not individual giant whales.

Token Contract

Contract Address: 0x95 ad61b0a150d 79219dcf 64e1e6cc 01f0b64ce

Standards: ERC-20

Security Rating: CertiK 4.5 / 5

The current position of SHIB

SHIB is approximately US$0.000005048, down approximately 9.3% in the past 24 hours. Data from another exchange showed a decline of nearly 8.27%, with a 24-hour range of fluctuations ranging from $0.0000502 to $0.0000559. Minor differences between different data sources are normal, but still worth noting.

The 24-hour trading volume is approximately US$391.35 million, and the market value is approximately US$2.97 billion. The ratio of trading volume to market value is approximately 12.95%. Relative to market value, liquidity is only 0.14%, which is quite weak for a token of this size.

The key point is that the supply data of SHIB is easy to confuse, so we will sort it out here. Etherscan lists a total coin supply of approximately 999.98 trillion SHIB. The total supply and maximum supply listed by CoinMarketCap are close to 589.49 trillion yuan, and the circulating supply is 589.24 trillion yuan.

The gap lies in the amount destroyed. A dead wallet holds 410.43 trillion coins, accounting for approximately 41% of all coinage. After excluding this part, the data is close to the 589 trillion yuan actually reported by CoinMarketCap.

This distinction is also important for market value. Etherscan's original chain listing value was US$5.09 billion because it also counted destroyed tokens. The market value based on circulating supply (a figure that truly reflects tradable value) is US$2.99 billion, consistent with CoinMarketCap.

The historical high price of US$0.0008845 appeared on October 28, 2021, about five years ago. Current prices are down approximately 94.15% from their peak. The lowest historical price of US$0.00000008165 appeared on August 27, 2020. The current price has increased by more than 6.3 million times from that low, which may sound exaggerated, but it would not be surprising to look at a six-year chart of meme.

Why SHIB fell today

This correction was not triggered by a single catalyst. The actual situation is simpler and more complex.

Prices rose sharply at the time of the breakthrough, attracting new leveraged bulls to chase the gains and then cooled down. This cooling triggered a wave of long liquidations, adding additional downward pressure on top of normal profit-taking.

This is different from coordinated selling. It's more like a hangover effect after a carnival and the atmosphere is a little too heated.

The overall risk appetite in the cryptocurrency market has also weakened this week, a background that deserves attention.

Technical Analysis: 4-hour chart

On the 4-hour SHIB/USDC chart, prices cleanly broke through a declining channel that lasted for several weeks, soaring from approximately US$0.000042 to a high near US$0.0000582, and then falling back to approximately US$0.0000505.

The RSI for this time frame currently stands at 58.01, well below the high point that entered the overbought area during the K-line break, which is a typical signal that momentum is cooling rather than reversing.

EMA is at US$0.0000458, still below current prices. The short-term trend structure is currently intact.

4-hour Support and Resistance Overview:

Resistance 2: US$0.0000669

Resistance 1: US$0.00000582

Current Price: US$0.00000505

Support 1: US$0.0000490

Support 2: US$0.0000405

Support 1 is very close to the current price. This gap is not large and requires close attention.

Technical Analysis: Weekly chart

When you zoom in, the situation becomes more cautious. On the weekly chart, this week's K-line opening price is close to US$0.0000530, and the current trading price is around US$0.0000516, down about 2.82%, with a few days before the weekly close.

The weekly chart is still technically in its own declining channel, which dates back to last year. The breakthrough in the 4-hour chart has not yet been confirmed over a larger time frame.

The weekly RSI was 43.75, lower than the neutral 50 line, but it did not continue to fall, in a pattern of waiting for the market to decide on the significance of a breakthrough.

Overview of Weekly Support and Resistance:

Resistance 3: US$0.00003344

Resistance 2: US$0.00001969

Resistance 1: US$0.00001017

Short-term Resistance: US$0.00000669

Current price: US$0.0000516

Support 1: US$0.00000405

Support 2: US$0.0000185

Long liquidation tide: Real-time data

Liquidation data immediately turned unfavorable to the bulls as prices began to decline.

In the past hour, the liquidation amount was US$48.86 million, of which long positions accounted for US$44.02 million and short positions accounted for only US$4.84 million.

Within 4 hours, the total liquidation amount reached US$86.63 million, which was also dominated by long positions at US$54.16 million and short positions at US$32.47 million.

Expand the time range to 12 hours and 24 hours, and the pattern remains the same. The 12-hour clearing amount was US$282.65 million and 24-hour clearing amount was US$915.24 million. Long positions accounted for a large share in both time periods.

This is the opposite of the empty squeeze model. This is a long liquidation wave: leveraged buyers chasing gains and breakthroughs are forced out when prices cool.

Liquidation overview:

1 hour: total 48.86 million, long 44.02 million, short 4.84 million

4 hours: total 86.63 million, long 54.16 million, short 32.47 million

12 hours: Total 282.65 million, long 211.51 million, short 71.14 million

24 hours: total 915.24 million, long 613.82 million, short 301.42 million

Token economics and holder concentration

SHIB contracts are rated 4.5/5 by CertiK, and holder data can be viewed on Etherscan. The total number of holders varies by data source, with CoinMarketCap listing approximately 3.06 million holders, while Etherscan counts approximately 1.68 million. Anyone considering opening a position should check both simultaneously.

Concentration is real. The top 100 wallets control 83.16% of the tracked supply. The narrower "giant whale" level has only 787 wallets, accounting for 0.05% of all holders, but controls 94.68% of the market value. The Gini distribution score is 0.9957, close to the maximum inequality. Each of the seven wallets holds at least 1% of the total supply.

But the raw data hides the truth. The largest single wallet holds 41.04% of the total supply. It is not a giant whale, but a destruction address.

In addition, the situation is different. Ranked second is an unmarked wallet, accounting for 6.22%, which is worthy of attention. Ranked third to fifth are exchange-managed wallets: Robinhood accounted for 3.93%, Binance accounted for 3.43%, and Crypto.com accounted for 2.77%, which hold tokens on behalf of many retail users. Ranked sixth is another unmarked wallet, accounting for 1.59%. Ranked seventh is Bithumb exchange custody, accounting for 1.55%.

Therefore, the real, unclear concentration risk mainly comes from two unlabeled wallets. The rest was either destroyed or stored in cold wallets on the exchange.

Liquidity and Exchange Trading Volume

Relative to market value, liquidity is only 0.14%, which is thin compared with many mature large-cap currencies, and futures trading volume is heavily biased towards one platform.

OKX leads by a huge margin, followed by MEXC, LBank, Bitget and Bitunix.

Futures trading volume on exchanges:

OKX: US$262.54 million

MEXC: US$71.61 million

LBank: US$68.81 million

Bitget: US$68.72 million

Bitunix: US$30.68 million

Gate: US$23.5 million

The dominance of the derivatives market by a single exchange means that leveraged positions rather than spot demand played a major role in this correction.

Bullish, Benchmark and Bear Scenarios

Bullish Scenarios: The daily close once again stood above US$0.0000582, opening the way for a rise to US$0.00000669 in 7 to 14 days. The probability is about 25%, depending on the exhaustion of long liquidations and the re-entry of buyers. Failure condition: The daily closing price is less than US$0.000047.

Baseline scenario: Prices consolidate between US$0.000047 and US$0.000058 over the next 7 to 30 days while leveraged positions reset. The probability is the highest, about 50%. Failure condition: The price clearly breaks through any of the above boundaries under the amplification of trading volume.

Bear scenario: The momentum weakens further and the price re-tests the US$0.0000490 support level. If overall market sentiment remains weak, it may fall further to US$0.00000405 within 30 days. The probability is about 25%. Failure conditions: Trading volume continues to increase and prices remain above US$0.000052 for more than a week.

Price forecast table:

Time frame: bearish, benchmark, bullish

24 hours: 0.000047, 0.000051, 0.000056

7 days: 0.000042, 0.000052, 0.000066

30 days: 0.000035, 0.000050, 0.000085

Long term (2026): 0.000025, 0.000060, 0.000150

These are ranges built based on existing support and resistance levels on the chart and are not deterministic predictions.

Main risks

The weekly RSI still below 50 is the top risk. This means that even if there are large fluctuations in the short term, a breakthrough has not yet been confirmed for larger trends.

Liquidity is only 0.14% relative to market value, which may lead to more drastic fluctuations in either direction.

Holder data varies significantly between different data sources, and although most of the top concentration can be traced to the destruction of addresses and exchange wallets, two large unmarked wallets remain unknown.

The dominance of futures on a single exchange means that this trend is still leveraged for now. Industry-wide fluctuations may cover any specific technical form of the token.