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FollowingGold prices hover around $4060, geopolitical risks intertwined with expectations of interest rate hikes.
On Tuesday, gold trading prices were close to $4060 per ounce. Geopolitical risks provided support for gold prices, while market expectations of rising U.S. interest rates limited its room for rebound. Technical charts show buyers are gathering momentum again, but gold prices must break through resistance between $4100 and $4110 for the short-term outlook to clearly turn bullish.
As of 5:04 GMT on August 4, spot gold rose 0.2% to US$4,062.41 an ounce; U.S. gold futures rose 0.7% to US$4,117.50 an ounce. Traders are weighing the uncertainties that could arise from the U.S. -Iran talks, while market pricing shows a roughly 65% chance of the Fed raising interest rates in September.
The next immediate catalyst is June job vacancy and labor flow survey data scheduled to be released at 10 a.m. ET on Tuesday. Weak labor demand may put pressure on U.S. dollar and government bond yields, thus benefiting gold prices; while strong data may strengthen market expectations for tightening monetary policy.
Sellers hold on to the US$4,100 - 4,110 region
Gold prices have rebounded from recent lows, but the structure of the two-hour chart still shows a series of lower highs forming below the downtrend line. The first technical resistance level is near the downtrend line of about $4070. On top of that, the supply area marked between $4100 and $4110 is a more important test.
If the gold price closes firmly above $4110 on the two-hour chart and then successfully steps back to confirm, it indicates that buyers have broken the bearish structure. If gold prices are blocked at trend lines or supply areas, US$4020 will become the main short-term support. If it continues to fall below this level, it will weaken the rebound momentum and may expose the psychological barrier of $4000.
Dollar and U.S. bond yields limit upside
The macro outlook for gold depends largely on how U.S. dollar and Treasury bond yields respond to this cycle's employment data. The comparative chart shows that although U.S. dollar and 10-year Treasury yields remain firm, gold-related assets remain at historical highs. This suggests that geopolitical needs and portfolio diversification have partially offset the pressure from rising borrowing costs.
Citi expects gold prices to stagnate or fall in the next month, before rising to $4500 in the fourth quarter of 2026 and reaching $5000 in the first half of 2027. This is still a conditional institutional forecast and not a definite price path.
ETF demand remains positive in 2026
The flow of investment funds shows a mixed picture, and the recent sell-off interrupted the overall positive trend in the first half of the year. Global physical gold-backed funds recorded an outflow of $8.9 billion in June. However, overall capital inflows remained positive in the first half of the year, reaching US$8 billion, while total positions increased by 18 tons to 4047 tons. Asian funds led the inflow, while North America was the only region to record outflows in the first half of the year.
Therefore, gold is still in a dilemma: on the one hand, it is supported by risk aversion and institutional demand, and on the other hand, it is facing pressure from expectations of rising interest rates. A confirmation of a breakthrough of $4110 would boost the bullish outlook, while a loss of $4020 could increase the risk of testing the $4000 mark again.
