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Following
XRP XRP's weekly supertrend indicator turned more, but historical patterns suggested potential correction risks.
On August 17, XRP's weekly Super Trend indicator turned bullish after the token price rebounded approximately 70% from US$0.98 to US$1.70. However, analyst ChartNerd pointed out that there is a worry about this signal: Looking back at every cycle since 2019, this exact signal often marks a local high, followed by a deep correction. Currently, XRP has stalled near the key resistance level that determined previous trends.
Bullish signals encounter resistance test
ChartNerd's analysis focuses on the recovery after XRP hit a low of around $0.98. Token prices rose about 70%, moving towards $1.70, but encountered resistance as they approached the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA, currently around $1.52). At the same time, XRP has been trading oscillated between that resistance and the 20-week EMA (approximately $1.29 to $1.30).
"As long as prices are below the 50-week EMA and above the 20-week EMA, we are just squeezing space," ChartNerd said, describing recent price movements as a consolidation period and traders are waiting for clearer direction.
This cautious attitude stems from the historical cycle of XRP. In 2022, the XRP rebounded about 90% from its cyclical low before a bullish supertrend reversal occurred near the 50-week EMA, followed by a 45% correction. During the 2019 bear market, another bullish flip was followed by a 56% correction; and after the 2020 cyclical low, XRP also had a bullish flip and then fell by 32%.
ChartNerd believes that this pattern occurs frequently enough to cause alarm. "Bullish supertrends often mark a local top," the analyst said, while emphasizing that historical behavior does not guarantee the same outcome this time.
He also pointed out that there are greater structural changes around US$1.90, and XRP needs to break through the US$1.50 to US$1.90 region for its upward trend to previous highs to be more convincing. Analysts said a breakthrough of $1.52 in the short term is still possible, but even if the price closes above the 50-week EMA, historical warnings will not be automatically eliminated.
Markets continue to fluctuate this week
Previous reports showed that during Bitcoin's recent decline, XRP once fell to around US$1.39, and then buying intervened to push it to US$1.44. As of press time, XRP has fallen nearly 4% again in the past 24 hours, and the trading price has returned to around $1.38, according to CoinGecko. The increase in the past week was 1.5%, but it has dropped more than 53% from this time last year and is still about 62% below the all-time high of $3.65 in July 2025.
In the past few days, Bitcoin has fluctuated in the range of US$77,600 to US$80,000, and the trend of XRP has mainly followed this fluctuation, rather than moving independently.
XRP futures trading volume also increased in August, with the total trading volume on the three major exchanges reaching US$64 billion, setting a record for the busiest month in the second half of the year. Spot XRP ETF funds also continue to flow in, although at a significant slowdown. Weekly net inflows fell to just under $19 million last week, after exceeding $110 million the previous week. So far, SoSoValue data shows that net inflows this week have reached approximately US$13.83 million.
