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FollowingApple is entering a new era, but Wall Street expects the iPhone to remain the core pillar
Although Apple is gradually entering the next stage of development, Wall Street generally does not believe that the iPhone will lose its core status in the short term. According to the revenue forecast chart shared by Evan, Apple is expected to achieve revenue of approximately US$557 billion in fiscal year 2028, a significant increase from US$416 billion in fiscal year 2025. Among them, iPhone remains the largest revenue contributor, expected to reach US$293.5 billion; while revenue from the services sector may reach US$153.4 billion.
This means that by 2028, the iPhone will account for about 53% of Apple's total sales, while the services sector will account for about 28%. These 2028 figures are based on market consensus estimates compiled by Visible Alpha and S&P Global rather than official company guidance, but they reflect a critical trend: Apple is increasingly transforming into a dual-engine driven company that relies on "hardware sales" and "continuous monetization of existing users."
The services business is becoming Apple's second giant pillar.
The most important change is not that Apple is trying to get rid of its dependence on the iPhone, but that Apple is able to get more lucrative subsequent benefits from customers after they purchase the device. Currently, Apple has more than 2.5 billion active devices and more than 1.5 billion paid subscription users, which provides a huge distribution base for its service business in areas such as the App Store, cloud services, Apple Music, payments, advertising and AppleCare.
In the latest June quarter, services revenue hit a record high of $30.7 billion, and overall quarterly revenue increased 16% year-on-year to $109.4 billion. Although iPhone revenue remains the main driver of growth, jumping 21.7% year-on-year to US$54.3 billion, this just confirms that the term "post-iPhone era" is misleading. Apple appears to be expanding on the iPhone rather than replacing it.
Apple's latest iPhone Duo further confirms this strategy. The $1999 folding-screen phone introduces a new high-end price tier, while Apple Intelligence and redesigned Siri create more opportunities to retain users within the Apple ecosystem. Reuters pointed out that there are still about 1.5 billion iPhones in use around the world, so AI upgrades may be more important than any single new hardware category.
Our previous analysis of Apple's bullish case also highlighted the possibility of Morgan Stanley's $360 target price, and pointed out that artificial intelligence, folding-screen iPhones and an aging device base could trigger a multi-year replacement cycle.
Apple is still inseparable from the iPhone
Revenue forecasts also reveal potential risks. Even in 2028, market consensus still predicts that more than half of Apple's revenue will come from the iPhone. Although its services business is expanding rapidly, Apple cannot afford a long-term stagnation in its flagship products. That's why iPhone Duo, Siri AI and broader Apple Intelligence deployments are so important.
With the release of the latest products, Apple's share price has recently jumped 3.6%. Investors have responded positively to the Duo series and AI upgrades, which also reflects the market's confidence in Apple's dual ability to maintain hardware innovation and service growth.
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