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BTC 比特币价格强势回归看涨旗形，年内爆发式上涨蓄势待发
周二，比特币（BTC）价格一度跌至7.5万美元下方，随后强劲反弹，重新稳固地处于看涨旗形通道之内。市场是否在清洗弱势持仓？比特币价格是否正在为潜在的上涨行情积蓄力量，甚至有望延续至今年年底？
趋势反转需确认更高高点与更高低点
来源：TradingView
在避免了可能的大幅下跌后，比特币多头松了一口气，因为价格已重新站稳于平行通道内部。若要维持这一看涨势头，关键在于形成更高的高点（Higher High），随后跟进更高的低点（Higher Low）。这将逆转自9月初以来形成的下行趋势，推动比特币价格回升至通道顶部。上方的阻力位已在图表中标示。
爆发式上涨即将到来？
来源：TradingView
日线图进一步强化了比特币的看涨逻辑。在主跌趋势线之上形成了一次大幅反弹，并构筑了典型的“牛市旗形”结构。这种形态难道不值得看好吗？更重要的是，50日简单移动平均线（SMA）与200日简单移动平均线已发生交叉。这被称为“金叉”，通常出现在牛市初期或临近阶段。
At present, bulls only need to maintain bitcoin prices within the bull market flag range, and the market will naturally interpret subsequent trends. If, as expected, prices break through the upper edge of the channel and surpass the previous local high, an explosive rise could follow.
If calculated based on the current bull market flag shape (which is difficult to draw because it does not tilt downward like the classic model), the potential target price may exceed the US$100,000 mark.
The 50-week moving average signals that the bull market may have started
Source: TradingView
Looking back at this bull/bear cycle and the previous cycle, the 50-week simple moving average (SMA) provides unique information at specific points in time. In the two previous bull markets, the 50-week moving average turned downward shortly after the top hit, marking the beginning of a bear market. At the beginning of the bull market in 2023, the 50-week moving average did not turn upward until the middle of the second quarter, which took about 175 days.
If this bull market follows the same pattern, assuming a bear market bottom is established at the end of June this year, the 50-week moving average may not start to turn upward until late December. By then, we expect to enter the first phase of the bull market.
It is also worth noting that once prices reach their 50-week moving average, they usually remain above it throughout the bull market and test it repeatedly as a support level. The only exception was the plunge caused by the COVID-19 epidemic in March 2020.
If the price of Bitcoin, which is currently within the bull market flag range, can successfully stand above the 50-week moving average and hold it firmly, it is unlikely that it will fall below that moving average again throughout the next bull market cycle.
Disclaimer : This document is for reference only and does not constitute legal, tax, investment or other financial advice.
