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BTC Arthur Hayes：AI“安全第一”暂停背后，或是需求疲软与债务危机的博弈
Arthur Hayes 指出，由 Anthropic、OpenAI 和 SpaceX 推动的 AI 发展“安全第一”暂停计划，与其说是出于对人类命运的担忧，不如说是因为当前价格下 AI 产品的市场需求疲软。
他认为，由此产生的算力过剩将使 AI 的运行成本降低。这一动态被他视为对其自身 AI 加密货币项目 Flop Network 以及比特币有利。
Hayes 将 AI 竞争与万亿美元债务问题挂钩
在 9 月 22 日发布的一篇文章中，Hayes 指出，这三家实验室的算力需求支撑着超过 1 万亿美元的优质投资级债务，以及数千亿美元的低质量贷款。这些融资通过英伟达（Nvidia）、博通（Broadcom）、谷歌（Google）和微软（Microsoft）等合作伙伴进行流转。
他推断，如果以“安全”为名削减训练支出，算力采购量将会下降，但债务仍保留在资产负债表上。“‘安全第一’从定义上讲就是算力需求的毁灭，”他写道。他引用了 Mispriced Assets 的 Nick Nemeth 的观点，描述了私募股权公司如何利用 captive 保险公司和附属再保险公司（通常注册于佛蒙特州），在没有大量真实资本支持的情况下，持有与 AI 相关的私人信贷保单持有人保费。
He put the size of this so-called "fictitious reinsurance asset" at $1.54 trillion and pointed to a Brookfield-related case valued at $1.48 billion in which the reinsurance company told regulators that its debt was zero. Hayes believes a downgrade of AI data center debt will force parent companies to find capital that reinsurance companies cannot provide, pushing Washington towards another rescue operation similar to the one in 2008.
"Will the U.S. government take one of the following measures: become the buyer of last resort of computing power in the name of national security, or print money to bail out insolvent insurance companies?" asked the BitMEX co-founder.
But he believes that no matter what actions the government takes, Bitcoin and crypto investors will benefit.
Bitcoin rebound and Hayes 'broader liquidity argument
Hayes wrote this as Bitcoin climbed to an eight-month high of $87,400 on Monday. SoSoValue data showed that about $999 million flowed into spot BTC ETFs that day, while CryptoQuant pointed out that a short squeeze resulted in the liquidation of more than $340 million of bearish positions.
He has previously made a similar liquidity argument. On September 3, for example, he pointed out that funding constraints in French banks such as BNP Paribas and Societe Generale could be a trigger for the Federal Reserve to restart currency printing through repo facilities.
“‘安全第一’并不意味着印钞量的巨大激增会立即到来，”他在今天的文章中写道，“但它给了特朗普一个选择。作为比特币和加密投资者，我们不在乎他做何决定，因为两条道路都通向更多的货币打印。”
