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山寨币季渐近,多数持有者仍深陷亏损

2026-09-24 09:34:38
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Key insights

The altcoin season is gathering momentum, but less than 25% of the median altcoin circulation supply is currently profitable. Glassnode data shows that despite the recent rebound in the cryptocurrency market, most altcoins are still in losses. The increase in altcoin participation has not yet translated into broad profitability, as pressure to unwind and sell still exists.

The altcoin season is gaining momentum, but Glassnode data shows that most altcoin holders are still losing money. As of September 23, less than 25% of the median supply of altcoins in circulation was profitable.

Recent gains have not yet translated into broad profitability. Despite this, more and more altcoins are beginning to participate in the broader cryptocurrency market rally.

Altcoin season collides with earnings gap

Glassnode's latest data shows a major change in the past few months. As the recent rally spreads from Bitcoin to more assets, its "altcoin cycle" signal has flipped from "Bitcoin season" to "altcoin season." During the August rally, Glassnode noted that while many altcoins performed relatively smoothly, Bitcoin accounted for most of the market's gains. The recent market is more extensive.

Altcoin investors are still deep in losses| Source: Glassnode

这一变化也推高了“山寨币季节指数”。根据 CoinMarketCap 的数据,9 月 22 日的读数为 49(满分 100),而一周前为 32,一个月前为 40。该指数在前一天曾触及 50。

这些数据表明整体状况有所改善,但这并不意味着大多数山寨币已经恢复了之前的损失。Glassnode 最新的盈利指标清晰地指出了这一区别:中位数山寨币只有不到四分之一的供应量处于盈利状态。因此,超过四分之三的测量供应量仍低于其链上成本基础。

随着价格复苏,大量供应正接近其盈亏平衡点。

为何盈亏平衡点至关重要

“供应量盈利”指标将当前市场价格与代币上次在链上移动时的价格进行比较。以低于当前市场价格获得的代币被视为盈利,而以较高价格获得的代币则仍处于亏损状态。

随着更多山寨币恢复元气,此前亏损的持有者可以逐渐接近其原始买入价格。因此,Glassnode 的数据显示,市场中仍然存在大量尚未回本的持有者群体。该公司还指出,全球市场顶部通常出现在大多数市场供应深度盈利之时。基于当前的读数,这一条件尚未达成。

This distinction is crucial to the current narrative of the "altcoin season". A rising index can show stronger relative performance, but this does not mean that the broader group of altcoin holders has fully recovered.

Earnings in the cryptocurrency market are becoming more widespread

Improving altcoin participation has accompanied a rebound in the broader cryptocurrency market. The Coin Republic cited data from CoinMarketCap, showing that the total market value of cryptocurrencies exceeded the US$3 trillion mark on September 22. Bitcoin closed at around $86,000 and Ethereum at around $2,740, rising sharply by nearly 10% in the past seven days, while the total market value of all digital assets has increased by about 4% in the past 24 hours.

According to the same report, several altcoins have recorded impressive value growth in the past 90 days. PONS rose 636.36%, USELESS rose 350.75%, and ZEC rose 264.84%. PUMP rose 224.61%, while UNI, RAY and ARB rose 198.64%, 196.53% and 178.20% respectively. NEAR rose 131.78% during this period. SOL rose 69.40%, ADA rose 66.82%, and ETH rose 65.14%.

These data help explain why the altcoin seasonal indicators have improved. Participation is no longer limited to a few assets. However, 90 days of performance will not erase the losses held by investors entering at high prices.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. On-chain earnings and market breadth indicators do not guarantee future price movements.

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