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比特币收复支撑位后,反弹至8.8万至9万美元阻力区

2026-09-30 03:36:44
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Bitcoin stabilized above the key moving average, with the $88K-$90K range constituting the main resistance.

Bitcoin (BTC) prices rebounded to around US$84,000, returning to the key moving average. Market sentiment has become positive as the profitability of the chain improves, but the resistance range of $88,000 to $90,000 remains the main obstacle currently facing.

Core Points

  • Bitcoin trading prices have exceeded its 100-day and 200-day moving averages, which are currently near approximately US$70,000 and US$71,000 respectively.
  • The $86,000-$90,000 area constitutes immediate resistance, while the $80,000-$82,000 area is the most recent short-term demand area.
  • The adjusted selling premium ratio (SOPR) has rebounded above 1, with its 30-day index moving average close to 1.01.

Technical analysis: Breakthroughs coexist with resistance

Bitcoin rebounded from a low near US$60,000, restoring a more positive daily structure, and prices once again stood firm above the two major moving averages. This rebound not only transformed the previous resistance level near $67,000 into deeper structural support, but also formed a new support area between $75,000 and $80,000 after a breakthrough in August.

目前,200 日移动平均线位于约 71,000 美元,而 100 日移动平均线正从下方约 70,000 美元处向上靠拢,两者均开始呈现上行趋势,看涨交叉形态临近。随后,比特币价格一度推高至 88,000 美元附近,但日线图显示,在 88,000 美元至 90,000 美元之间存在显著的供应压力,这阻碍了价格的持续上涨。下一个关键目标位是 95,000 美元。

市场观点:短线震荡与链上数据改善

根据 Shayan Markets 的分析,四小时图表显示,比特币价格在从 75,000 美元攀升至 82,000 美元并触及 86,000 美元区域后遭遇卖家阻击,出现短线回调。此后,价格主要在 83,000 美元附近盘整,而 $80,000-$82,000 的订单块仍是突破后的主要近期需求区。

四小时相对强弱指数(RSI)目前位于 50 附近。这一读数表明动能已经稳定,而非处于极端状态,尽管该指标尚未产生明确的看涨信号。

Shayan Markets 指出,链上基本面也有所改善。经过调整的 SOPR 指标重新回到 1 以上,其 30 日指数移动平均线现约为 1.01。该指标用于衡量被花费的硬币总体上是处于盈利还是亏损状态,数值高于 1 表明盈利性支出占据主导地位。分析师认为,实现的盈利能力改善支持了当前的复苏态势,但与更强上涨周期中记录的峰值相比,当前的 aSOPR 读数仍处于温和水平,并未确认新一轮大规模扩张的开始。

总体而言,比特币目前的走势是在过去两个月从约 60,000 美元攀升、8 月突破 67,000 美元以及随后在 75,000 美元至 80,000 美元区间盘整之后的延续,直至价格接近 88,000 美元。

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