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BTC The U.S. spot bitcoin ETF market fluctuates violently: Analysis of linkage between capital flows and prices
From September 28 to October 2, U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) experienced significant fluctuations. As institutional interest shifted, capital flows and Bitcoin prices changed rapidly at the beginning of the fourth quarter.
Significant capital inflows and outflows this week
Spot Bitcoin ETF starts the week with a positive momentum. On September 28, net inflows were US$31 million and increased by US$66.2 million the next day. However, this trend reversed on September 30, when net outflows totaled $148.7 million that day. These divestments came mainly from Fidelity's FBTC fund, which had an outflow of $125.6 million. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust Fund (IBIT) reported an outflow of $9.5 million, while Bitwise's BitB Fund reported an outflow of $13.6 million.
On October 1, driven by an inflow of US$195.6 million from BlackRock's IBIT Fund, the ETF landscape changed again. This strong demand offset significant divestments from other products, including $60.7 million from FBTC and $31.4 million from Grayscale's GBTC.
These large flows reflect continued competition among major asset managers such as Fidelity, BlackRock, Grayscale and Bitwise, which are vying for dominance in the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF market.
During this period of volatility, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded both significant outflows-led by FBTC's $125.6 million divestment-and rapid inflows, such as the $195.6 million increase in BlackRock IBIT, highlighting the changing institutional demand landscape for bitcoin-related products.
Reaction of Bitcoin price movements to ETF fund flows and Federal Reserve expectations
Volatility of ETF demand is closely related to the trend of Bitcoin price. The cryptocurrency started trading at close to $84,500 on September 28, then briefly fell to $82,600, and closed the day at close to $83,500. During the ETF outflow, Bitcoin hovered around $83,500 throughout the month.
There was a new rebound in early October as capital inflows returned. Bitcoin surged more than $87,000 at one point on October 2, a move coinciding with renewed investor optimism that the Federal Reserve may adopt a cautious approach to interest-rate movements. Although it lost some of its gains at the end of Friday's trading session, Bitcoin remained resilient over the weekend.
Prices stayed above $84,000 on Saturday and climbed further on Sunday, peaking at $86,770 during the session before finally closing at around $86,480. This trend caused Bitcoin to rise by about 2.7% from its opening price on September 28, successfully resisting this week's sharp fluctuations in ETF inflows and outflows.
Institutional support continues to play a key role in shaping price trends and market expectations for spot bitcoin and related investment products, as reflected in ETF fund flows.
