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BTC 
ETH October 5 - 11: Crypto markets wait for Federal Reserve signal
During the week of October 5 - 11, the calendar for the Bitcoin and altcoin markets was calmer than the previous week. However, minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting, speeches by Federal Reserve officials, Turkish inflation data and large token unlocking events remain the main focuses that may affect price fluctuations. On the Ethereum side, the Sepolia testnet phase of Glamstam's upgrade is about to start.
Market expectations for the Federal Reserve change after weak employment data
In view of the weak employment data released last week, market expectations for the Federal Reserve's policies have also been adjusted accordingly. In September, the U.S. economy created only 29,000 new jobs, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. The result reduces the possibility of further interest rate hikes at the October meeting.
How will FOMC meeting minutes affect Bitcoin?
One of the most important events of the week will be the minutes of the FOMC meeting, which will be released on Wednesday, October 7. According to the Fed's calendar, minutes will be released at 14:00 EST (21:00 Turkish time).
At its September 15 - 16 meeting, the Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00%. Markets are concerned about whether the minutes reveal the risks highlighted by members in terms of inflation, employment and monetary policy.
Affected by the latest employment data, market expectations for a rate hike in October have dropped to about 18%. Currently, the market's focus is not limited to the October decisions, but also includes relevant hints about the December meeting. Therefore, if the minutes emphasize that inflation remains high, it may push up government bond yields again; conversely, if the tone is more dovish, it will provide support for Bitcoin and other risky assets.
What are the speech schedules for Fed officials this week?
In addition to meeting minutes, speeches by central bank officials will also be closely watched. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman will speak; on Wednesday, after the release of the FOMC minutes, Federal Reserve Governor Waller will speak on Thursday; and on Friday, Federal Reserve Governor Collins will speak.
Investors will look for signals from these speeches on the direction of future monetary policy. In particular, comments made before and after the release of the minutes may reshape the market's judgment of interest rate expectations.
Key agenda for the cryptocurrency market this week
This week's market calendar is not dominated solely by U.S. monetary policy. Large-scale activities in the cryptocurrency industry and inflation data from Turkey are also the focus of market attention.
- Monday: Annual data on the Turkish Consumer Price Index (TÜFE) will be released at 10:00. The market expectation is 30.30%, and the previous value is 31.51%. On the same day, the CoinferenceX Singapore event kicked off.
- Tuesday: Federal Reserve Governor Bowman's speech will be followed at 17:45.
- Wednesday: The Singapore TOKEN2049 Main Summit opens. At 21:00 on the same day, the minutes of the FOMC meeting will be officially released.
- Thursday: Federal Reserve Governor Waller's speech will be released at 11:30.
- Friday: Federal Reserve Governor Collins 'speech will be followed up at 23:00.
Summary and Outlook
The core of this week is not the new Fed interest rate decision, but the market will focus on the minutes of the FOMC meeting, speeches by Fed officials, changes in government bond yields and changes in the supply of tokens. In addition, Turkey's inflation data will be one of the first important macro news this week.
On Bitcoin, the market will watch to see whether expectations for a rate hike that fell after last week's employment data are maintained. In the field of altcoins, the unlocking events of tokens such as ENA, HYPE, RAIN and Aster and their potential impact on prices will be key issues worthy of attention in the coming days.
This content is based on general market data and does not constitute investment advice. It is recommended that you conduct independent research.
