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FollowingSpaceX shares surged 6% in a single day, and their market value exceeded US$2.29 trillion.
On Monday, SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) shares rose about 6% to close at around US$168.78, pushing the company's market value to approximately US$2.29 trillion. This performance put the stock price back above the $150 mark, which helped boost Elon Musk to become the world's first millionaire to reach the trillion-dollar mark in June this year.
The catalysts for this stock price rise include Morgan Stanley's renewed positive rating on the stock and Musk's strategic adjustment to rename the company's artificial intelligence division to "SpaceX SI."
Morgan Stanley raised its target price to US$300, boosting market confidence
The most significant market signal came from Morgan Stanley. The bank maintained its "overweight" rating on SpaceX shares and set a price target of $300. Analysts advise investors that from a growth-adjusted perspective, the stock is still severely undervalued, with a valuation about 40% lower than other large artificial intelligence peers.
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas directs investors to SpaceX's upcoming 15th starship mission (Flight 15). The mission is expected to launch in late October or early November. Jonas believes that if the 15th mission successfully achieves "rocket recovery", it will become the most important operational catalyst for SpaceX's stock price since its June IPO, and may even be the most decisive factor.
摩根士丹利的300美元目标价显得尤为激进。在参与承销的17家银行中，大多数给出的目标价集中在200至250美元区间。事实上，所有投行目标价的中位数为225美元，而SpaceX股价自上市初期以来尚未触及这一水平。
从AI到“SI”：业务重心的战略转移
10月4日（周日），埃隆·马斯克在社交平台X上发帖称：“不再强调AI，而是SI。这样更好。”随后他明确表示，SpaceX AI部门将被重新品牌化为“SpaceX SI”，旨在将SpaceX定位为一家超级智能（Super Intelligence）公司。
这一品牌重塑紧随美国总统唐纳德·特朗普于9月29日签署的第14434号行政命令之后。该命令指示联邦机构在非法定文件中采用“超级智能”和“SI”术语，取代传统的“人工智能”和“AI”表述。
相比出席白宫峰会的其他高管，马斯克采纳新名称的速度更快。这一转变发生在一个近期更侧重于计算能力的公司身上。第三季度，其AI部门收入高达25.6亿美元，远超航天业务产生的9.62亿美元收入。
数据显示，第二季度总收入同比增长92%至78亿美元，其中AI部门收入更是激增247%。SpaceX管理层预测，到2026年12月，其年度营收运行速率将达到1000亿美元。
回顾6月IPO以来的市场波动
The recent pullback is surprising, given the stock's enthusiasm in its early days as a listing. SpaceX's IPO in June was priced at $135, opened at $150, and soared to $211 in three days. The company set the largest first-day listing record in NASDAQ history and helped Musk become the world's first trillionaire.
Subsequently, the stock price fell back to around $123, down nearly 60% from its peak. Currently, analysts expect its 52-week trading range to be $104.83 to $225.64.
Macroeconomic environment and valuation controversy
Macroeconomic data is positive for SpaceX to a certain extent. A lower-than-expected September employment report showed that the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and only 29,000 new non-farm jobs were created, weakening market expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. The Nasdaq index rose 0.7% on the day, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell slightly.
However, some investors remain skeptical. SpaceX reported a net loss of approximately $541 million despite capital expenditures of $18.4 billion in the second quarter. Its market-to-sales ratio (P/S) exceeds 100 times. Analyst notes released over the summer pointed out that the closely packed price targets indicate that banks are divided on the company's prospects because of its difficult fundamentals.
Whether the 15th mission can deliver on the catalytic effect Morgan Stanley expects will go a long way to quell the valuation debate.
