Bitcoin price: Does $87,000 rebound or fall below $81,000?

比特币价格反弹至82,800美元附近，阻力位制约周末复苏

在经历了一轮由清算引发的剧烈抛售之后，比特币价格已反弹至82,800美元附近。然而，84,400美元附近的阻力位依然存在，这成为其周末复苏并再次尝试冲击87,000美元关口的主要障碍。

市场概况与技术面分析

据CoinGecko数据显示，截至10月10日，比特币交易价格约为82,726美元，过去七日内下跌了2.2%。日线相对强弱指数（RSI）为50.97，而比特币价格仍低于布林带中轨的84,396美元水平。

回顾近期走势，美国现货比特币ETF在10月5日至9日期间记录了6.789亿美元的净流出。交易者Lennaert Snyder指出，81,100美元是反弹的关键支撑位。此前，市场因抛售引发了高达10.9亿美元的全行业加密货币清算（其中多头头寸占10.5亿美元），导致比特币在Bitstamp上短暂触及80,350美元的低点后开始回升。

从Binance TradingView图表来看，BTC价格略高，约为82,790美元。目前的复苏正在接近短期移动平均线，但仍位于多条长期均线之下。4小时图显示，价格维持在82,794美元附近，略高于20周期简单移动平均线（82,766美元）。这一反弹使BTC回到了该短期趋势线附近，结束了此前从86,000–87,000美元区域的大幅下跌。

However, the larger moving average still poses upward pressure. TradingView data shows that the 100-cycle average is US$84,171 and the 50-cycle average is US$84,330, forming a narrow cluster of resistance that is approximately 1.7%-1.9% higher than current chart prices. The daily chart further adds another nearby resistance level: the middle track of the Bollinger Band, which represents the 20-day moving average, is at $84,396, almost directly above the two 4-hour moving averages.

Taken together, technical analysis indicators concentrate multiple technical obstacles in the US$84,170 - 84,400 range. Although Bitcoin has rebounded more than $2,000 from recent lows, its price remains below these three key moving averages. The upper track of the daily Bollinger Band is at US$86,935, close to the US$87,000 area that suppressed prices several times in late September and early October. In addition, daily momentum also cooled, with the RSI reading of 50.97 below its average of 59.86 and well below the stronger reading reached during the September rally.

Analyst view: US$81,100 is the core support for a rebound

Trader Lennaert Snyder said that Bitcoin began a weekend consolidation after rebounding from the US$81,000 region. His analysis determined that $81,100 was the last major support level for the rally to develop into a higher time frame reversal.

Snyder pointed out that recent lows are around $80,400. If this low holds until next week, it will increase the chance that prices will move into the liquidity area around $87,000. In his bullish scenario, Bitcoin first needs to overcome closer resistance. He identified $84,000 and a gap in the $84,000 - 85,000 range on the 4-hour chart as obstacles to testing the highs again.

Snyder also warned that weekend markets tend to reverse early next week. He expects markets to be relatively calm on Saturday and possible volatility on Sunday, but his bullish scenario assumes support is maintained. The TradingView chart shows that there are two additional levels between the current price and Snyder's downward threshold: the 200-cycle moving average on the Bitcoin 4-hour chart is at $81,771, and the lower Bollinger Band on the daily chart is at $81,858. The two readings are about $90 apart, concentrating the most recent technical support around $81,800. Below this region, Snyder's $81,100 threshold and recent lows of $80,400 will become the next reference point.

The trader said that if the low point was lost, Bitcoin would face the risk of falling again, and he would then focus on potential entry opportunities below $80,000.

Liquidation heat chart shows high concentration above

CoinGlass's one-week liquidation heat chart shows that the brightest remaining upper concentration is concentrated in the US$87,000 - 87,300 region. Another visible band is located around US$84,700 - 84,800, with additional concentrations around US$84,000 and US$88,000.

The heat map records Bitcoin's decline from the area above $86,000, its sharp decline towards $80,400, and its subsequent recovery towards $82,800. The latest prices are still below the stronger upper band. As a result, Snyder's $87,000 scenario is consistent with the significant liquidation concentration on the CoinGlass chart. The $84,000 - 85,000 resistance area he mentioned also overlaps with several visible bands above the current market.

Below the price, the heat map shows concentrations around $81,600,$81,000, and $80,400, followed by more bands below $80,000. These levels are close to the moving average support and recent lows visible on TradingView. The path to $87,000 first passes through the $84,000 - 85,000 region, while Snyder's bearish scenario begins with a loss on the near-term support area.

U.S. Bitcoin ETF outflows

Daily data from Farside Investors shows that in the five trading days from October 5 to 9, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF had a net outflow of US$678.9 million. The largest outflow occurred on October 7, when a net outflow of $484.9 million was recorded that day. Among them, BlackRock's IBIT lost $207.7 million, Fidelity's FBTC dropped $105.1 million, and ARK and 21Shares's ARKB recorded divestments of $101.7 million.

Another $244.1 million left the fund on October 8, mainly led by an outflow of $197.1 million from FBTC. There was a slight reversal on Friday, with a net inflow of $21.1 million, including a $22.4 million inflow from IBIT. Friday's inflows were coincited with Bitcoin's recovery, but the weekly fund balance remained negative. On the chart, BTC ended the period above recent lows, but remained below the resistance cluster of $84,170 - 84,400.

If support remains and Bitcoin clears the intermediate hurdle, Snyder's recovery scenario will make $87,000 a target. If the low of $80,400 falls, its bearish scenario takes into account a retest below $80,000.