Fed related risk cuts push Bitcoin back to $62,000, with rebound prospects in focus

Bitcoin fell back under pressure to US$62000, and market risk sentiment cooled down.

Bitcoin\'s current trading price is slightly above US$62000, falling nearly 2% in the past 24 hours, mainly due to weakening global market risk sentiment. This round of selling pressure is not limited to the crypto market: Market participants pointed to declines in semiconductor and artificial intelligence-related stocks, while renewed tensions between the United States and Iran pushed oil prices higher.

Affected by the resurgence of Samsung-related profit-taking operations, the Asian market suffered an impact overnight. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve released minutes of its June meeting on Wednesday. Traders are watching the document closely to determine the direction of the next policy decision on July 29-the market currently expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged to be about 73%. For crypto investors, the language on inflation and interest rate paths in the minutes of the meeting may be as important as the final interest rate decision.

Key Points

• Bitcoin\'s intraday trend shifted from buying to selling. After the cumulative futures trading volume difference reversed and risk appetite weakened, the decline accelerated.
• Funding rates and open interest contracts have declined, but the long-standing positive funding rate model has not yet been broken-indicating that market positions are shrinking, but not fully closed.
• Clearing activity is mainly concentrated on the long side, which means that if prices return to key long clearing areas near $61000, the downward trend may intensify briefly.
• According to the Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index, market sentiment is still in a state of \"fear\", while macro catalysts (oil prices, stock markets and Federal Reserve minutes) continue to dominate the market\'s direction.

The futures market dominated the transition from position opening to risk removal

According to data compiled by Hyblock, it is clear at a glance how fast leveraged funds are converted. On Monday, there was net buying interest in Bitcoin as cumulative trading volume spreads in both the derivatives and spot markets turned positive. The Hyblock report shows that the cumulative trading volume difference in futures increased by approximately US$585 million, and the cumulative trading volume difference in spot increased by nearly US$119 million. As the bitcoin price exceeded US$64000, the combined net purchase of the two was approximately US$705 million.

On Wednesday, the situation turned. As investors responded to the risk-averse atmosphere-oil prices rose by about 5%, semiconductor sectors weakened and Federal Reserve minutes were about to be released-the cumulative futures volume gap turned into more intense selling. Hyblock data showed that futures selling pressure accelerated to nearly $500 million, and the spot market also contributed approximately $86 million in additional selling volume.

Importantly, this suggests that recent price volatility has been driven more by derivative positions than by solid spot opening behavior. This distinction is crucial because futures based volatility can resolve more quickly when macro pressure increases, even if long-term buyers remain active in the background.

The popularity of positions has cooled down, but the overall funding rate background has not been destroyed

While the cumulative volume margin reversed, market microstructure indicators showed a decrease in exposure rather than a full surrender. According to Hyblock, both funding rates and open interest contracts fell, consistent with traders choosing to reduce their positions when uncertainty rises.

Even so, Hyblock pointed out that the week-long positive funding rate trend still exists. For traders, this is a nuance to note: forward funding rates often average mean that market participants are still willing to pay for holding long positions. Falling funding rates and open interest contracts indicate that positions are shrinking, but if positive funding rates persist, it may also mean leverage is simply rebalancing rather than being eliminated.

Clearing activities also showed a one-sided trend. Although dollar-denominated clearing activity remains relatively small, Wednesday\'s forced selling was dominated mainly by long positions. Hyblock data shows that the long liquidation amount is approximately US$47 million, while the short liquidation amount is approximately US$4 million.

Hyblock further pointed out that there is a \"large dense area of long positions\" near the US$61000 region. If bitcoin prices fall into that region, these forced liquidations could amplify the downward momentum for a short period of time-an effect traders usually watch closely because of the liquidation cascade that could temporarily suppress normal buying support.

Macro catalysts keep Bitcoin tightly tied

Bitcoin\'s recent trading trends have been deeply influenced by broader market developments. The current macro background includes the shift of funds away from high-risk stocks, pressure on semiconductor and artificial intelligence-related stocks, and rising energy costs following the escalation of the situation in the United States and Iran. These factors have an impact on the crypto market in part because they shape the overall liquidity and risk-appetite environment.

In addition, the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting also provide a near-term catalyst. Market pricing currently tends to assume that the July 29 meeting will not adjust interest rates, but the content of the June meeting minutes may change the market\'s expectations of when inflation will advance and allow policy easing. In times of rapid changes in global interest rate expectations, crypto assets-especially those that rely on stable liquidity-tend to show greater sensitivity.

Crypto market sentiment further confirms the current atmosphere of caution. According to Alternative.me data, when price fluctuations occurred on Wednesday, the cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index was still in the \"Fear\" category. Although sentiment indicators are not precise timing tools, they help understand whether downturns are more likely to trigger active bottom-hunting or are instead encountering continued restraint.

On-chain and corporate treasury signals raise long-term questions

In addition to macro factors and derivative money flows, another factor is weighing on the market: Strategy\'s continued association with Bitcoin supply. Sources pointed out that Strategy recently sold 3588 bitcoins. Even without extrapolating broader conclusions, the institutional investor\'s repeated treasury sales will still affect investors \'judgment of whether it will maintain a consistent buyer role during market downturns.

The same source pointed out that the current price of Bitcoin is below its average price level of US$74582. This spread can be interpreted in multiple ways-investors may view it as an unrealized profit-and-loss position, but this does not necessarily immediately change its behavior-however, in times of heightened macro pressure, expectations from potential sellers in the market may tighten risk appetite.

This also helps explain why futures driven selling may continue: If spot participants-supported by spot capital inflows and Bitcoin ETF purchases mentioned by sources-still show interest in the current price range and derivatives positions become more cautious, the market may struggle to form a lasting trend reversal amid shocks.

Looking ahead, traders should pay close attention to two things: first, whether the $61000 long clearing intensive area will attract price downward and trigger short-term cascading effects; and second, how the Federal Reserve meeting minutes affect market expectations for interest rates in late July. Until macro uncertainties subside and positions stabilize, Bitcoin may remain vulnerable to rapid fluctuations driven by leverage rather than sustained spot demand.