Bitcoin hits key resistance: Can bulls break through?

Key Points

BTC is testing the 50-day SMA ($64,950) after forming a series of higher lows from the bottom of $57,800.

If the daily line closes and successfully tests the resistance level, the target points to the 0.382 Fibonacci level (approximately $67,000).

Saylor's chart shows that the company holds 843,775 BTC units, with an average cost of $75,653, and a floating loss of 15.41%, or approximately $9.84 billion.

Before this article was published, Strategy had just sold 3,588 BTC units, and the purchase tracking chart did not show this sale.

Bitcoin's key resistance level: Can bulls break through?

Bitcoin has hit a higher low for two consecutive weeks in the rising channel formed by rebound from the June 2026 low of $57,800. Current prices have directly hit the first important hurdle: the falling 50-day SMA ($64,950), which adds to the horizontal resistance that has suppressed every rally since early June. The daily RSI is around 54, indicating positive momentum but not yet overbought, leaving room for continued gains, but not inevitable.

The specific sequence for upgrading this trend is: According to analyst Filip Vantchev, the daily closing at the above-mentioned resistance level and then successfully stepping back and holding that position as support may open the path to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level (about $67,000)-this is the first level for short exits in the June downmarket. Until this close occurs, the rising channel remains a resistance test rather than a confirmed breakthrough. If it is blocked here, the pattern of failed rebound below the 50th SMA will continue to be maintained, while the 100th SMA (approximately $70,769) and 200th SMA (approximately $73,913) will still move downward at high levels.

Saylor's Six Words, Two Interpretations

In this technical standoff, Strategy Chairman Michael Saylor wrote on the X platform: "The orange dots only tell part of the story." The accompanying StrategyTracker chart shows the relationship between the company's 113 buying events and historical Bitcoin prices, with a disturbing set of data: 843,775 BTC units are worth US$54 billion, with an average cost of US$75,653, and an unrealized loss of 15.41%, which is approximately US$9.84 billion at current prices.

This post came days after Strategy sold 3,588 BTC units-the company's first major turn in years of one-way accumulation. It is this background that makes those six words crucial. Orange dots only mark buy operations. A chart designed specifically to track buying cannot structurally show selling behavior. Therefore, the literal interpretation of Saylor's message does hold: these dots omit the part of the story that the market most wants to know.

Trader Michael van de Poppe took a bullish interpretation and replied: "Coming, we're going to buy more!" This interpretation has historical basis-in Strategy's accumulation era, Saylor often used such obscure tracking posts to advance buy announcements. Gold advocate Peter Schiff gave the opposite interpretation, replying that "the rest of the story is how much Strategy lost on these bitcoin purchases" and pointed out that in the case of floating losses, it will face the cost of repaying debt and paying dividends to preferred shareholders in the future.

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The time node itself adds another meaning. Saylor's veiled posts usually appear before Strategy's announcement on Monday-which releases buy or sell updates before U.S. markets open. Therefore, the possible disclosure date is July 13. If Bitcoin's test of the 50th SMA is dragged into a new week without a decision, then the announcement will fall directly into this decision-making area.

Prior to this, neither response could be verified, and the post itself did not lead to any commitment from Saylor; the answer may not even be related to the transaction-because Strategy had used similar posts to advance financing and company announcements. What can be verified is that there is asymmetry between the two periods of the company. When the average cost is $30,000 below the spot price, those dots tell the full story Strategy wants to tell. And when the cost base is $11,400 above the market and there is a sale on the book, whatever the direction, the untold part becomes interesting.

On the chart, no matter what Saylor meant, the result was clear: if the daily line closed firm at $64,950 and successfully tested back, the target would point to $67,000; while being rejected would bring the channel down or even the low of $57,800 back into discussion. This time, a six-word post and a six-month chart are waiting for the same answer.