Sailor's orange dot triggers a new wave of Strategy's trading mystery

Michael Siler, Executive Chairman of Strategy, once again triggered market speculation and paid attention to the company's next Bitcoin transaction.

On July 12, Siler posted a familiar Bitcoin position chart on the social platform, with a note: "Orange dots only tell part of the story." The chart marks the timing of previous Bitcoin purchases, but does not indicate whether the company bought, sold or did not take any action during the latest earnings cycle.

Summary

Thaler's "orange dot" post did not clarify the next move for Bitcoin after Strategy completed a large corporate sale last week. Strategy sold 3588 bitcoins for $216 million to pay preferred stock dividends and rebuild its dollar reserves. MSTR's share price remains in a weak pattern near support, with weak momentum leaving investors on the sidelines of buying or selling options.

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Thaler usually releases the chart before strategy companies file Monday's filings. Traders had regarded the posts as a signal to buy again. But after the company began selling Bitcoin in 2026, the credibility of this model diminished. As a result, the latest post could be interpreted in two ways: Strategic companies may have resumed increasing holdings, or Siler is intended to point to a broader capital plan that now includes selective sales.

Strategy has not confirmed any transactions in the week ended July 12. Its public tracker shows that the latest reported position is still 843,775 bitcoins. Companies typically disclose financial activities through Securities and Exchange Commission filings, so social media posts alone cannot determine whether a transaction occurred or reveal its actual direction.

Strategy's recent sales behavior changes the meaning of the signal

Strategy disclosed on July 6 that it sold 3588 bitcoins for approximately US$216 million between June 29 and July 5. The company first sold 1363 bitcoins at an average price of US$59,256, and then sold 2225 bitcoins at an average price of US$60,773. These transactions reduced the position to 843,775 bitcoins, with an average purchase cost of US$75,476. Details can be found in Strategy's July 6 application document.

The document shows that Strategy used funds from the sale to pay preferred stock dividends and replenished funds drawn from its U.S. dollar reserves. As of July 5, the reserve was US$2.55 billion. Strategy also said its independent Bitcoin monetization program still has up to $1.25 billion in financing space. The company reported that there were no common stock sales or share buybacks during the same week.

Broader shift in capital strategy

The July sale is seen as the end of the simple "never sell" era for strategic companies. Reported that the company now views Bitcoin as part of a broader capital structure that includes preferred stock, dividends, debt, cash reserves and possible share buybacks. Strategy's first sale in 2026 involved only 32 bitcoins, which CEO Von Lehler later described as a systems test. The subsequent sale of 3588 bitcoins was even more significant because the company used the funds to meet recurring financial obligations.

A separate report cited Grayscale research and warned that weak STRC and MSTR prices could increase dividend pressure and weaken the ability of strategic companies to fund new Bitcoin purchases. Other analysts still expect companies to resume buying when market conditions and financing conditions improve.

MSTR charts are still under pressure

MSTR shares closed around $94.64, forming a series of lower highs and lower lows since a high of around $450 in July 2025. The stock is still below the $126.55 area, which currently constitutes resistance. Its Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 30.5, showing strong negative momentum and close to oversold status. The reading may support a short-term rebound, but does not confirm a trend reversal. (The source of the chart has been hidden)

The MACD line is still below its signal line, and both are below the zero axis, and the overall pattern remains bearish. Immediate support is in the $90 to $95 range. Falling below this area will further weaken the technical structure. If the stock price wants to recover, it needs to break through the US$125 to US$130 range first, and then usher in stronger momentum. Strategy's next filing will clarify whether Siler's orange dots represent a buy, another sell, or another balance sheet adjustment.