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FollowingKey Points
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Key Points
Large-scale capital expenditure plans draw attention
Executive stock sales hit market sentiment
Nebius shares plunged 11.4% in Wednesday trading, Erasing gains from the previous session
Management raised its 6 capital expenditure forecast to US$20 billion to US$25 billion, But major revenue will not be realized until early 2027.
Company executives-including top leadership-have sold more than $140 million in stock in the past three months.
News about Meta's plan to commercialize idle AI computing resources, Continued pressure on Nebius and rival CoreWeave (CRWV)
Despite a positive rebound in stock prices after reaching a major AI computing deal with Reflection AI on Tuesday, it failed to remain above $190
Nebius Group (NBIS) plunged 11.4% in afternoon trading on Wednesday, erasing the previous day's optimism, Market participants re-evaluated the company's aggressive capital allocation strategy and increasing insider transactions.
The previous trading day, the stock price rose strongly driven by two positive news: one was the announcement of a capital-light partnership structure for AI infrastructure facilities, and the other was a multibillion-dollar computing contract with Reflection AI that extends through 2029. However, market sentiment quickly reversed.
NBIS struggled to maintain above the key technical level of $190 at the opening on Wednesday, before selling pressure intensified. This model is exactly the same as the previous market of "buying on rumors and selling on news"-AI infrastructure stocks have been affected many times in 2024.
Large-scale capital expenditure plans draw attention
Investor anxiety is mainly focused on Nebius's revised 2026 capital expenditure forecast, which ranges from $20 billion to $25 billion. Such a huge investment has led Wall Street analysts to question the timetable for capital returns.
Management stated that most of the new infrastructure capacity will not bring a significant revenue contribution until early 2027. Market participants are increasingly demanding tangible evidence of cash generation, rather than just expanding contractual reserves.
Continued negative free cash flow and reliance on a concentrated customer base amplify these concerns-companies will face vulnerability if revenue growth slows or capital costs rise.
Executive stock sales hit market sentiment
Recent U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission documents revealed that company insiders have sold heavily in the past few weeks. Executives, including chief executives, chief technology officers and chief infrastructure officers, have collectively sold more than $140 million worth of shares over the past quarter.
Such large-scale sales activity, whether or not executed through a pre-arranged trading plan, usually undermines market confidence-especially when stock prices face downward pressure.
Weakness in the broader sector exacerbates this challenge. CoreWeave (CRWV) fell 6.15% over the same period. Since early July, news that Meta (META) intends to commercialize idle AI computing infrastructure has repeatedly upset new cloud service providers, with every attempt to rebound encountering a new round of selling.
The Nasdaq Composite Index fell about 1% on Wednesday, putting headwinds on highly valued growth stocks. The S & P 500 fell 0.34%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was essentially flat-suggesting that the weakness was concentrated in the technology sector.
Despite Wednesday's correction, NBIS maintains a valuation premium relative to its new cloud competitors. The stock is at a 52-week low of $49 and is still up about 138% year-to-date even after the recent correction.
Nebius still has several favorable conditions: rapid expansion of AI-related revenue, improved core business profit margins, and a healthy balance sheet. The company's current market value is US$48.84 billion.
