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BTC Is Bitcoin's worst over? New analysis explores whether US$57,700 has reached a bottom
According to the latest market report released by BIT on July 17, Bitcoin fell to approximately US$57,700 at the end of June, which may mark the end of its worst phase of the bear market in 2026.
The cryptocurrency investment company, which had accurately predicted most of Bitcoin's declines over the past few months, now says traders should assess whether this low marks the end of a correction or is just a brief pause before the next round of declines.
The market trend is basically in line with the previous forecast path.
BIT's latest report is based on research released on June 12, when the agency believed that Bitcoin had entered the final stage of a bear market. At that time, the company outlined the Elliott Wave A-B-C adjustment pattern since October 2025: an initial sell-off to the US$60,000 to US$69,000, then a rebound to US$80,000 to US$90,000, and finally a C-wave decline during the 2026 World Cup, which ends on July 19.
This prediction basically came true: Bitcoin plunged from about US$97,000 to US$62,900 in February this year, and then recovered to about US$82,000 in May-what the report called a "bucking the trend in a bear market." Afterwards, as geopolitical tensions and changes in U.S. monetary policy expectations put heavy pressure on risky assets, Bitcoin fell further, eventually reaching $57,700 at the end of June.
In a July 17 update, BIT admitted that it underestimated the impact of the U.S. -Iran conflict, which has driven up inflation, and the hawkish stance of new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh. Even so, the company said the overall price structure is still highly consistent with its original forecast.
Previous reports also pointed to a number of technical signals supporting the possibility of a market bottoming out, including historic downturn and oversold stochastic indicator readings. In addition, Bitcoin was well below its weekly moving average at the time. The latest update shifts the focus to the 21-week moving average and describes it as an important indicator of whether the market has re-entered a long-term upward trend.
Not everyone agrees with the bottom view
However, not all chart analysts believe that a bottom is forming. For example, CryptoQuant contributor IT Tech wrote an article titled "Do you really think the bottom has emerged?" Notes from, noted that inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs-one of the biggest drivers of Bitcoin's rise in the past two years-have dropped significantly in 2026.
In 2024, the cumulative net inflow will exceed 500,000 bitcoins, and a strong inflow of approximately 250,000 bitcoins will also be recorded in 2025. However, in 2026, these funds have flowed out of approximately 120,000 bitcoins. The analyst therefore asked: "If ETF demand drives the rise, how can you be bullish when demand completely reverses?"
In his view, the market is currently facing headwinds rather than tailwinds.
Earlier this week, Bitcoin once rebounded above $65,000 after U.S. CPI data fell well below market expectations, but the gains were quickly swallowed up by selling. As of press time, the asset was trading at approximately $63,000, down nearly 3% in 24 hours and about 2% weekly. In addition, Bitcoin has fallen more than 50% from its historical high.
