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FollowingSilver was trading close to $59 an ounce on Tuesday, as geopolitical uncertainty and a rebound in demand for precious metals offset concerns about rising U.S. interest rates. Currently, silver is facing an increasingly narrow technical range. If it can break through US$59.20, it may open a channel to US$60.
As of 6:50 GMT on August 4, spot silver rose 1.2% to US$58.88 an ounce, more than gold. Traders are waiting for the June U.S. job vacancy report released at 22:00 Beijing time to look for new clues on the Fed's next move. Markets expect a 65% chance of a September rate hike, which could put pressure on non-yielding metals if U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar rise.
Silver compresses within a symmetrical triangle
Silver's short-term chart shows prices are sandwiched between rising support and falling resistance. This narrowed structure suggests that once the market has a confirmed breakthrough, volatility may increase.
Silver's 15-minute chart shows that silver prices are close to US$57.92, with recent support around US$57.90. The next downside support is at $57.10 and $54.36.
Resistance starts around $58.20, followed by $58.70 and $59.20. Continuing to exceed $59.20 will break the downward structure and enhance the possibility of testing the psychological barrier of $60.
A brief break through resistance is not enough in itself to provide confirmation. Buyers need to hold the breakthrough area during the backstep test. Conversely, a break below the uptrend line and $57.10 will weaken the bullish pattern and expose a larger support level of $54.36.
The ratio of gold to silver shows relative strength
Silver's performance relative to gold provides another indicator of whether the current rally has broader support.
The four-hour chart of the gold-silver ratio shows that the gold-silver ratio is close to 68.93, below its 50-cycle exponential moving average (approximately 69.82). The relative strength indicator is close to 41, indicating that the momentum of the ratio has weakened.
A falling ratio means that silver outperforms gold. A continued fall below the level of around 68 could strengthen silver's bullish outlook; a rebound above 69.80 to 70 would indicate that investors are shifting relative strength back to gold.
Falling inventories support the supply tightening argument
Long-term inventory positions remain important because silver has both investment and industrial market attributes.
The silver inventory chart shows that reported silver inventories fell from approximately 525 million ounces at the end of 2025 to nearly 313 million ounces in the spring of 2026. Inventories have since recovered to about 330 million ounces, but are still well below their previous peak.
Since the screenshot does not indicate the warehouse category and does not distinguish between registered warehouse receipts and qualified warehouse receipts, it cannot be regarded as evidence of an immediate delivery shortage. However, the overall downward trend supports the argument that available inventories have tightened.
It expects mine production to be basically flat in 2026, and predicts that the structural market gap will expand to 46.3 million ounces.
Analysts surveyed expect the average price of silver in 2026 to be approximately $71.90 per ounce, down from previous estimates of $78. They pointed to weak industrial activity and weakening demand in the solar energy industry, but investment in artificial intelligence, electric vehicles and renewable energy could provide long-term support.
Silver's short-term trend now depends on the triangular breakout and the market's reaction to U.S. labor data. Holding above $59.20 will help move towards $60, while losing $57.10 will bring market attention back to deeper support.
