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BTC Inflation data and U.S. bond yields put pressure on Bitcoin, and Bitcoin encounters a downside test.
On September 10, due to multiple external pressures, Bitcoin prices fell and fell below the US$77,000 mark. Among them, factors such as the rise in the U.S. producer price index (PPI), higher treasury bond yields, and the liquidation of leveraged positions have jointly intensified the selling pressure in the cryptocurrency market.
The trigger for the sell-off wave
Bitcoin fell to about US$76,650 that day, and then stabilized around US$77,000. Annual U.S. producer inflation recorded 5.4% in August, fueling speculation that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates again that week. Reuters reported that after the data was released, the probability of raising interest rates is expected to climb from about 65% to nearly 70%.
This wave of selling led to a liquidation of approximately US$562 million in the crypto market, mainly driven by Bitcoin's loss of support around US$78,000. A large number of long positions were forced to close, further amplifying the downward momentum of prices.
Analysis of key technical points
As Bitcoin failed to hold the US$78,000 defense line, technical outlook quickly weakened. Analysts view $75,000 as strong downside support and are concerned that continued selling pressure could push it towards the 200-day moving average (about $72,500). If the upward trend continues, resistance will first be at $78,000, followed by $81,000. Although market dynamics vary throughout historical cycles, current trends suggest that technical factors and macroeconomic data are playing a key role.
Spot ETF fund flow attracts attention
The U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETF recorded a net outflow of US$120.2 million on September 9, adding to the outflow of US$46.6 million the previous day, bringing the cumulative total to approximately US$167 million. This was the first net outflow for two consecutive days since mid-August, a development that was particularly eye-catching given that inflows of more than a billion dollars had been recorded during previous market corrections.
Summary of core market views
- Rising U.S. inflation data triggered speculative speculation in the market about the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike.
- After Bitcoin fell below the US$78,000 support level, it triggered a massive liquidation of positions.
- The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF experienced significant outflows, deviating from the recent overall trend.
- Technical analysis shows that US$75,000 and US$78,000 are key technical points.
Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose to about 4.93% on September 10, and crude oil prices also exceeded the $100 mark. These factors continue to push up inflationary pressures and strengthen interest rate hikes. Currently, Bitcoin's price trajectory is increasingly influenced by liquidity conditions and the macro environment, rather than just relying on technical signals.
Maintaining the US$75,000 level would pave the way for retesting the US$78,000 or even the US$80,000 -81,000 range. However, if this support level is effectively broken, prices may move closer to the 200-day moving average ($72,500). Despite previous bullish "golden cross" signals, the current market focus is still closely focused on inflation concerns and liquidity issues.
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