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BTC 
ETH The long-awaited market in the Altcoin market has finally begun to exert strength.
In the crypto asset market, the much-awaited market change has finally begun to show strength. With the exception of the top 10 cryptocurrencies, the total market value of all remaining assets has once again broken through the trend line that has been under pressure since the end of 2024 and has risen by more than 10% this week. Despite this, the current market has not yet officially signaled the beginning of the "Altcoin Season".
The city's value range rose to about US$220 billion from about US$199 billion at the beginning of the week, which reveals the scale of the market. It is worth noting that this rise occurred above a breakthrough in a key support area that lasted for approximately 1000 days.
Is the two-year waiting period coming to an end?
The breakthrough in the total value of cryptocurrencies outside the top 10 is a remarkable development for altcoin investors. Although the market has been under pressure for a long time, recent trends send a technical signal that the tightening situation that has continued since the end of 2024 may be changing.
However, current levels are still well below historical highs. The total market value of the sector had previously reached a record high of approximately US$451 billion. As a result, the current market value of $220 billion is not even half of its peak.
加密分析师AshCrypto在X平台（原Twitter）上指出，四年期的市场周期通常将2026年与牛市阶段联系起来。比特币在《Clarity Act》投票中遭遇挫折以及美联储加息背景下依然保持强势，表明当前周期可能与以往的行为模式有所不同。
若比特币主导地位下降，山寨币能否走强？
对于山寨币涨势的持续性，比特币的市场主导地位已成为一个关键指标。在周线图上，比特币主导地位指标似乎正在形成一个向下的三角形形态。
如果该结构向下突破，资金可能会从比特币流向其他加密货币。这种轮动效应将为山寨币市场提供更多流动性，从而巩固当前的突破态势。
时机也值得注意。比特币主导地位的潜在下降，与山寨币突破趋势线的时间点重合。若此情景发生，整个市场的资金分布可能会发生重大变化。
比特币与以太坊面临的风险为何不同？
根据CoinShares的分析，比特币目前正处于鹰派货币政策预期与《Clarity Act》立法受阻之间的夹缝中。该机构表示，如果通胀未能平息或美联储未转向更温和的态度，比特币在今年年底前很难稳固地站稳8万美元上方。
The key difference here is that the impact of regulatory dynamics on different crypto assets is inconsistent. Bitcoin is relatively isolated in current regulatory uncertainty, while altcoins such as Ethereum are more vulnerable to regulatory changes.
Therefore, Bitcoin's strength does not alone guarantee a broad altcoin rebound. We must pay close attention to the specific flow of funds in the crypto market.
What level does the altcoin season need to reach?
Despite the technical rebound in altcoins, CoinMarketCap's Altcoin Season Index has yet to send a strong seasonal signal. At the time of writing, the index is at a level of 46. Although it is higher than the previous day's 42 and the previous week's 37, the range is still insufficient.
According to the definition of CoinMarketCap, the index needs to exceed 75 to confirm entering the altcoin season. This indicator has been below 75 for several months and is still far from the high of 78 that occurred in September 2025. Therefore, the current breakthrough can be seen as a turning point that requires close attention, rather than the exact beginning of the altcoin season.
In the future, the combined performance of Bitcoin's dominance, the altcoin seasonal index and the total market value of altcoin will be the decisive factors.
This content does not constitute any investment advice. The market has high-risk characteristics, please conduct independent research before making an investment decision.
