Disclaimer: Content does not constitute investment advice. Trading involves risks—please invest with caution!

Binance altcoin rebounded by 70%! Is the altcoin season here?

2026-09-20 21:44:15

Bookmark

70% of listed altcoins exceeded the 200-day moving average, and Total3 returned to the US$800 billion mark.

Among the altcoins traded by Binance, 70% of the prices have stood above the 200-day moving average. At the same time, the "Total3" index, which represents the total value of the entire altcoin market excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, broke through the US$800 billion mark again after eight months. However, another key indicator shows that there is currently no full-scale altcoin season in the market.

The Altcoin Season Index fell back to 41, not reaching the trigger threshold.

The "Altcoin Season Index" tracked by the Blockchain Center fell back to 41 points on September 20. Judging from historical data, the index needs to reach more than 75 points to confirm the arrival of the altcoin season. The current value is still 34 percentage points away from this standard.

This shows that although altcoin prices are showing signs of recovery, their strong position relative to Bitcoin has not yet been established. Although the altcoin market has rebounded in value, it has not shown widespread forces enough to shake Bitcoin's dominance.

Total3 returns to US$800 billion, market rebound expands

The total market value of the cryptocurrency market rose 3.7% in September. During this period, some altcoins achieved strong gains despite facing macroeconomic and geopolitical shocks.

根据CryptoQuant分析师Darkfost分享的数据，Total3指数再次站上8000亿美元。该指标专门衡量排除比特币和以太坊后的山寨币市场总市值。此前，8000亿美元这一高位已长达八个月未曾出现。

Total3不仅收复了这一失地，还以强劲的单日收盘表现超越了今年5月的峰值。币安的数据显示，山寨币市场的复苏正在进一步扩大：目前约有70%的交易对价格位于其200日移动平均线之上。这一比例上次出现还是在2025年10月。

值得注意的是，上述山寨币在过去一年中，曾长期在200日均线下65%至85%的区间内交易。相比之下，同期比特币的价格主要在75,600美元至82,000美元的区间内波动。

此外，分析师Ash Crypto也在一张剔除了前十大市值资产的图表中指出了一种新的上涨形态。

为何山寨币上涨却未迎来“山寨币季节”？

核心区别在于，不能仅用美元计价的表现来解释这一现象。“山寨币季节指数”衡量的是前50大山寨币在90天周期内相对于比特币的表现。因此，单一山寨币兑美元价格上涨并不能直接推高该指数，关键在于它是否跑赢了比特币。

9月20日指数处于41点，意味着在最近90天内，少于半数的山寨币表现优于比特币。回顾八月，该指数曾一度升至约67点，此后山寨币相对于比特币的弱势逐渐显现。

因此，当前的市场复苏并非传统意义上的“山寨币季节”。山寨币确实在回暖，但这种回暖尚未转化为对比特币的全面优势。

比特币主导地位为何至关重要？

比特币的市场主导地位（Bitcoin Dominance）是佐证这一观点的另一重要数据。截至9月20日，比特币占整个加密货币市场总市值的比重为59.34%，且在最近三个交易日中上升了0.5%。

这一动向表明，市场资金尚未显著地从比特币流向山寨币。因此，尽管Total3突破8000亿美元以及币安七成山寨币站上200日均线发出了强烈的复苏信号，但这些数据本身尚不足以证实山寨币季节的开始。

ETH/BTC比率释放新信号

尽管存在上述分歧，市场上仍有值得关注的动态。根据Ash Crypto提供的数据，ETH/BTC汇率目前约为0.03238，近期触及了自2021年以来持续的下行趋势线。

这一举动可能是山寨币潜在变局的早期信号，但目前尚无足够数据确认趋势的根本性反转。ETH/BTC比率仍远低于2021年的高点，因此当前的突破仅为极早期的信号，远未达到确认大规模山寨币轮动的程度。

判断山寨币季节需要哪些数据变化？

目前的各项指标讲述了两个不同的故事：一方面，Total3重回8000亿美元，且币安70%的山寨币站上200日均线；另一方面，山寨币季节指数降至41，比特币主导地位维持在59.34%的高位。

结论很明确：山寨币市场虽在复苏，但尚未形成对比特币的广泛优势。要让山寨币季节指数攀升至更高水平，山寨币必须在接下来的90天测量期内持续跑赢比特币。

分析师Darkfost警告称，尽管市场结构如此，局势也可能迅速逆转：“此类发展可能快速变化，因此保持谨慎是必要的。”

就目前而言，数据传递的信息清晰一致：山寨币市场正在重获活力，但要真正开启山寨币季节，其对比特币的优势必须扩展到更广泛的层面。

本内容基于一般市场数据，不构成投资建议。建议读者进行独立研究。

Disclaimer:

All content published on this website, including hyperlinks, related applications, forums, blogs, and other media accounts, originates from third-party platforms and their users. CoinMarketInsight makes no representations or warranties of any kind regarding the website or its content. All blockchain-related data and materials are provided for informational and research purposes only and do not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Users and third parties are solely responsible for the content they publish. CoinMarketInsight shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this website. You should exercise caution and conduct your own independent research, review, analysis, and verification before making any decisions.

Read Full Article

0.00% 0.00%

Bullish

Bearish

Hot Coins