Exchange Ranking
Top Exchanges
24h Volume Ranking
Popularity Ranking
Exchange BTC Balance
Proof of Reserves
Decentralized Exchanges
Funding Rate
Funding Heatmap
Liquidation Data
Max Pain
Long/Short Ratio
Whale L/S Ratio
Binance/Okex/Huobi L/S
Bitfinex Margin L/S
ETF Tracker
Solana ETF
XRP ETF
Hong Kong ETF
Bitcoin Treasuries
Crypto Reversal
Ethereum Reserves
HyperLiquid Wallet Analysis
Hyperliquid Whale Watch
Large Transactions
On-chain Movement
Bitcoin ROI
Stablecoin Market Cap
Options Analysis
News
Articles
Economic Calendar
Features
Wallet
Contract Calculator
Security
Collections
Watchlist
FollowingSeemingly contradictory: The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, but the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rises.
It sounds paradoxical: the Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates, but the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond is rising. But in fact, the Fed does not directly control the yield on the 10-year Treasury note.
The central bank sets only very short-term policy rates. Long-term Treasury yields are determined by investors, who price inflation expectations, economic growth, government borrowing, and future Fed policies for years to come.
The Fed's yield curve framework roughly divides long-term yields into two components: expected future short-term interest rates and the "Term Premium" required by investors to hold bonds with longer maturities. This is why long-term yields may still rise even as the Fed cuts interest rates.
Interest rate cuts could instead push up long-term expectations.
Assuming the Fed cuts interest rates to support economic growth, investors may conclude that looser policies will keep the economy strong for longer, push up inflation, or force the Fed to reverse policy direction in the future.
如果市场预计未来的短期利率将高于之前的假设，那么即使当前的政策利率刚刚下降，10年期收益率仍可能上升。这也是为什么在经济数据强劲时，即便处于货币宽松周期，美国国债收益率依然可能走高。Coinpaper此前就观察到这一动态：在美国商业活动数据强劲后，10年期美债收益率一度突破5%。
通胀因素可能压倒降息影响
通货膨胀尤为关键，因为国债承诺的是固定支付。如果投资者预期未来十年的通货膨胀率较高，那么这些未来的固定支付在实际价值上将变得缩水。因此，债券持有人会要求更高的名义收益率作为补偿。
这种压力可能来自强劲的薪资增长、商品价格上涨、财政刺激措施，或是经济表现持续超出预期。随之而来的更高国债收益率会波及到其他市场。例如，收益率上升为何伤害AI和科技股，就展示了无风险利率升高如何降低股票估值并增加借贷成本。
更多的政府债务可能推高收益率
国债的供给量同样重要。如果美国政府发行更多债务，投资者就必须吸收更多的债券。如果需求没有以同样的速度增长，更大的供给可能需要更高的收益率才能吸引足够的买家。这意味着，货币政策可能在放松，而财政借贷却在向相反的方向施压。
The term premium adds another layer of complexity. When uncertainty rises around inflation, deficits or future interest rates, investors may demand additional compensation to hold 10-year bonds. Coinpaper has previously reported on a similar divergence: why the VIX index (panic index) remains low while Treasury yields have reached multi-year highs.
Core point
The key point is simple: the Fed's interest rate cut is only an input variable that affects long-term yields. If inflation risks, growth expectations, the size of government borrowing, or term premiums rise enough, 10-year Treasury yields could still rise even if the Fed is cutting interest rates.
This is not that the bond market is ignoring the Fed, but that the bond market is looking longer.
