Dogecoin forecast: Daily new issuance exceeds ETF inflows

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狗狗币预测：2026年9月26日的价格与上下关键点位

任何阅读今日狗狗币（Dogecoin）预测的人，几乎每次都会看到两个数字：价格和流入美国狗狗币交易所交易基金（ETF）的资金量。第三个数字通常缺失，但它却是最重要的。狗狗币协议每天都在发行新币，其新增供应量甚至超过了本月最强单日ETF的净流入量。

在2026年9月26日UTC时间14:41，价格为$0.097562（约合0.085648欧元，数据来源CoinGecko）。同期，Blockchair的链上数据显示发现了1,353个区块，这意味着产生了价值约132万美元的新增1,353万枚DOGE。而根据SoSoValue的数据（在市场报道中被引用），9月份流入美国现货ETF的最强单日净流入量为9月22日的117万美元。因此，新增供应量大于作为催化剂的交易需求。

这并不意味着价格必然下跌。这意味着，仅关注ETF报告的预测只考虑了方程中较小的一半。本文将分析较大的一半，并展示您在未来几天可以具体检查的内容：哪些关键点位得以维持，价格目标预设了多少市值，以及哪个税务截止日期正面临12个月亏损57%的风险。

狗狗币价格在UTC时间14:41报价为$0.097562。当日波动范围为$0.096449至$0.099703，过去24小时交易量为8.8825亿美元（CoinGecko）。在一周内涨幅为9.83%，一个月内涨幅为10.75%，而一年内跌幅为57.0%。市值为152.3亿美元，排名第12位。

上行方向有三个关键点位。首先是日内高点$0.099703；其次是整数关口$0.10，狗狗币在截至9月22日的一周内重新收复了这一关口，这也是自6月以来的最高水平；第三个点位位于$0.12，标志着多个模型预测的年底区间下沿。下行方向首先看日内低点$0.096449，然后是月初争夺过的$0.09关口，最后是 fallback 点位$0.0931，狗狗币在9月24日经历10.3%的日内跌幅后曾跌至该水平。

这些点位仅是观察点，而非买入信号。推理依据在于过去四周的交易历史，而非某种形态。使用者应在下单前设定这些点位，且事后不得更改。

为何每份狗狗币预测都必须计算发行量

发行量指网络单位时间内支付给矿工的新代币数量。比特币的发行量每四年通过减半机制减少一次，而狗狗币自2015年以来每个区块固定发行10,000枚DOGE，不再减少。总供应量没有上限，市场数据提供商的数据也证实了这一点：DOGE没有记录最大供应量。

This is not a criticism of the agreement, as the fixed circulation is a deliberate decision made by developers to maintain the availability of coins as a payment method over the long term. However, for price forecasts, this has one hard consequence: every dollar entering the market is spread out into a larger token supply pool next year than today. Therefore, even if demand remains constant, the ratio of demand to price will not be constant.

13.53 million new DOGE units are added daily: Detailed calculation

This number can be recalculated from on-chain data rather than just deriving from the protocol text. In the 24 hours before the data was extracted on September 26, miners found 1,353 blocks. Based on 10,000 DOGEs per block, 13.53 million new DOGEs will be generated. At a price of $0.097562, the single-day fresh supply is $1.32 million.

If extrapolate (estimated) to one year at the same block rate, it would be approximately 4.94 billion DOGE units, which would be approximately US$482 million at current prices. Compared with the circulation supply of 156.08 billion pieces, this is equivalent to an annual expansion of 3.16%. Two independent sources confirmed the circulation supply itself: CoinGecko showed it at 156.076 billion, and Blockchair's chain analysis showed it at 156.077 billion.

compares this US$1.32 million to US$888.25 million in daily trading volume, which accounts for only 0.15%. It sounds small, but it is true on a single trading day. The key is the cumulative effect: this amount is generated every day, and the ETF inflow is an event that may not come and disappear completely at one provider in October. Payout continues regardless of the price direction, and this is the only item in the calculation that cannot be closed.

ETF inflows versus new issues: A comparison of headlines not drawn

Flows into the U.S. dogcoin spot ETF did increase in September. A net inflow of $909,650 was reported on September 21, triple the previous week. It reached $1.17 million on September 22, which is the strongest single-day figure since a monthly total of $2.15 million in May 2026, according to SoSoValue. Grayscale Trust GDOG recorded an inflow of $248,510 on September 16.

compares these numbers with new circulation of US$1.32 million per day. The strongest ETF trading day of the month is still about 13% below that figure. On all other days, the gap is even wider. In addition, there is a reverse discovery that rarely appears in bullish reports: Bitwise has announced that its Dogecoin ETF will close in October. A product that is about to close will not buy more assets, but may release positions.

This also puts whale purchases reported the same week into context. 360 million DOGE units in 24 hours may sound like a lot, but it only accounts for 0.23% of the circulation supply, which is equivalent to about 27 days of new circulation. The small impact of such purchases was demonstrated in the previous week: despite the purchase of 240 million DOGE whales, prices were still yielding. Therefore, anyone who uses inflows as an argument should always compare it to ongoing distributions, and in the purchase path itself, fee differences between final trading venues are more important than inflows in a single day.

$0.20或$0.40的价格目标需要多少市值

价格目标可以通过转换为市值来验证。这是在使目标与市场其余部分可比时唯一的衡量标准。到今年年底，以当前的区块速率，将再增加约12.3亿枚DOGE，使流通供应量达到约1,573亿枚。

在$0.20时（多个模型命名的$0.12至$0.25区间的下沿），市值将达到315亿美元。这比今天的152.3亿美元翻了一番以上。在$0.40时，市值将为629亿美元，约为今天价值的四倍。两者均非不可能，但都需要来自其他投资的资本。

价格目标本身来自模型提供商和分析机构，代表它们的评估，而非本编辑团队的观点。目标分歧很大：一些模型预测年底区间为$0.12至$0.25，DigitalCoinPrice的分析得出2026年12月的平均值为$0.1151，个别预测低于当前价格，月内最高仅为$0.0758。$0.0758至$0.25的范围不是预测；它表明了该币种定点目标的稳健性有多低。

历史最高价$0.73在算术上已不再是同一目标

历史最高价为$0.731578，于2021年5月7日创下。今日价格比其低86.66%。许多预测将此高点作为参考而不计算供应量，这正是最有趣的部分丢失之处。

自2021年5月7日以来，已过去约1,968天。按每日新增1,353万枚DOGE计算，这意味着增加了约266亿枚额外代币。当时的流通供应量约为1,295亿枚，而今天是1,560.8亿枚，增长了20.6%。

后果很具体。如果恰好有一笔相同的资金推动狗狗币在2021年5月达到$0.731578，那么在今天它将分摊到多20.6%的代币中。价格将约为$0.607，而非$0.73。若要再次达到名义上的历史最高价，以年底流通供应量计算，需要约1,150亿美元的市值，是今天价值的七倍以上。每过一年而没有新高，这一门槛就会进一步推高。

狗狗币对比比特币：稀释效应的比较

与比特币的比较使数量级变得具体，且可以从同一天相同的链上数据中得出。在比特币网络上，矿工在那24小时内找到了141个区块。按3.125 BTC的区块奖励计算，即新增440.6枚比特币，按$83,998的价格计算约为3,700万美元。

绝对来看，比特币的发行量几乎是狗狗币的28倍。但在相对层面，情况反转：相对于2,009万枚BTC的流通供应量，年度发行量约占0.80%。而在狗狗币中，这一比例为3.16%，接近四倍。而且，随着每次减半，比特币的这一份额不断下降，而狗狗币的份额下降缓慢，因为绝对数量保持不变，而基数在增长。

购买日期、数量和价格决定税负，无交易所导出包含完整信息

持有期与亏损抵扣：负57%时的关键截止日期

对于德国的私人投资者，DOGE属于《所得税法》第23条意义上的私人处置。持有期是指购买和出售之间收益免税的时间间隔。该期限为一年。在一年内，收益需按个人税率纳税，所有私人处置合计超过每个日历年度1,000欧元的阈值时需纳税。

在12个月亏损57.0%的情况下，对于许多持仓而言，相关问题不是免税，而是相反的方向。一年内出售产生的亏损可以抵消其他私人处置的收益。如果在您出售之前期限届满，该亏损在税务上将被忽略。因此，那些在2025年秋季购买的人正面临一个不再重来的截止日期。

这不是卖出建议。这是提示在截止日期自行流逝之前查看每个头寸的购买日期。分配是按钱包和交易所账户进行的，使用您一致应用的方法，通常是先进先出（FIFO）。如果没有您对每次添加的日期、数量和价格的自有记录，事后很难对此进行文档化，仅靠交易所导出往往不够。哪些工具能干净地保留此历史记录，请参阅我们的税收工具和投资组合追踪器概述。如有疑问，税务师将根据您的整体情况澄清案例，因为评估取决于您的具体情况。

Buying under MiCA: How to identify a licensed provider

Since the European crypto asset market regulations came into effect, trading venues for German customers need to be authorized as crypto asset service providers (CASPs). CASP stands for crypto asset service providers and exactly refers to this licensed role. Whether the provider holds this license, you should check it in BaFin's corporate database rather than in the provider's marketing materials.

In practice, this means three things to your next order. Look for the legal name the provider has registered because the brand name is usually different. Check whether the authorization covers the service you want to use, i.e. transaction, custody, or both. And find out which EU country granted the authorization, as this determines which regulatory body is responsible in the dispute. Anyone only needs to do this check once for their primary provider and only needs to be repeated when switching.

DOGE escrow: own address or exchange account

Dogecoin uses the Scrypt method to run on its own chain rather than as a token on Ethereum. This has practical consequences before purchase: not all hardware wallets support Dogecoin chains, and support in the device firmware differs from support in the computer software. Before initiating a withdrawal, check whether the model you own or intend to purchase supports both.

如果持仓留在交易所账户中，您持有的是对交易所的债权，而非对硬币本身的直接所有权。对于希望积极交易的小额资金，这是一个可辩护的权衡。对于旨在度过一年期的持仓，计算会发生变化，因为对手方风险将持续数月。哪些设备支持该链以及设置方式如何，详见我们的硬件钱包比较。在这两种情况下，恢复助记词都应写在纸上，绝不要保存在照片文件或云存储中。

检查 meme 币的点差和费用

在单价低于十美分的情况下，点差的影响比昂贵硬币更大。点差是您立即买入的价格与您可以立即卖出的价格之间的差额。这是一项不出现在任何费率表中的成本项目。

因此，在下订单之前，不要仅比较公开的贸易费，而是为您的金额计算一次立即买入并立即卖出的成本。在8.88亿美元日交易量的支持下，DOGE在大交易场所足够流动，使得这一数字保持较小。在较小的交易场所，以及涉及即时刷卡支付的支付路线上，这一数字通常是几倍高。第二项成本是DOGE的提款费，按每笔交易收取，在小额方面百分比影响最大。每月两次提款成本翻倍；一次累积提款成本仅一次。