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SEC指引出台后CLARITY法案失败，XRP价格面临1.60美元考验

2026-09-27 00:29:38

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XRP

TLDR：目录

核心摘要：

XRP价格预测在SEC指引后追踪支撑位
XRP价格预测等待月度RSI确认
XRP攀升至1.54美元，周涨幅约10%，四小时图显示1.50美元为支撑位，1.60美元为阻力位
SEC员工讨论了回购、质押收据、网络维护和推广，但非约束性指引未对XRP进行分类
五只美国现货XRP ETF在9月25日录得2265万美元净流入，其中Bitwise贡献了1839万美元，约占81%
XRP月度RSI仍低于其移动平均线；历史反弹对比并非目标价，交叉信号尚未确认

XRP价格预测在SEC指引后追踪支撑位

XRP价格预测有两个近期参考点：1.50美元的支撑位和1.60美元的阻力位。在更广泛的市场反弹中，XRP升至1.54美元，周涨幅约为10%。在四小时图表上，该代币在本周早些时候触及1.60美元后，于周六UTC时间08:41回落至1.5535美元。

9月25日，参议院未能推进《CLARITY法案》之后，SEC员工发布了最新的加密货币指引。该指引涉及代币回购、质押收据、网络维护和宣传声明，但并未对XRP进行分类。同日，现货XRP ETF也录得了2265万美元的净流入。

SEC发布加密市场清晰化指引细节

The failure of the CLARITY Act means proposed federal market rules remain unresolved. SEC employees answered questions about digital assets under securities analysis. Staff said that repurchase involving non-securities tokens on functional networks does not necessarily imply committed management work. Certain pledge receipts may be classified as digital instruments or commodities based on structure and issuance method.

BREAKING: The SEC began to bring clarity to the crypto market after the CLARITY Act failed to pass.
Details include:
·Token buybacks on operating agreements are not considered management behavior
·Liquidity pledged tokens are considered digital commodities, not securities
·Maintenance, upgrades and bonuses...
- Crypto Rover (@cryptorover) September 26, 2026

Staff stated that routine upgrades and promotion of existing uses may not fall within the scope of investment contract analysis. These employee answers have no legal effect, and the status of XRP remains unclear. For XRP price forecasts, the guidance provides background information but does not provide specific rulings for XRP.

On September 25, five U.S. spot XRP ETFs attracted a net inflow of US$22.65 million. Bitwise brought in $18.39 million, or approximately 81% of the total. Franklin Templeton's XRPZ received $4.26 million; three other products recorded no net changes. Cumulative net inflows reached US$1.79 billion, and consolidated net assets were US$1.77 billion.

合并资产相当于XRP市值的1.80%。基金交易额为5775万美元，其中包括来自Bitwise的3707万美元。数据显示资金流入集中在两只产品中，但这并不能证明ETF购买导致了本周的上涨。ETF交易量与净流入是分开的。ETF需求为XRP价格预测增添了背景信息，而Kalshi的9月预测价为1.70美元。概率可能会发生变化。

XRP价格预测等待月度RSI确认

在四小时图表上，1.60美元是近期上涨受阻后的直接阻力位。如果有效突破该位置，目光将转向1.65美元，随后是1.70美元。9月23日后，1.50美元区域稳定了回调走势。若收盘价跌破支撑位，可能会暴露出1.45美元的风险，并削弱短期复苏势头。因此，XRP价格预测的设置取决于这些附近的关键水平。

四小时RSI为52，略高于50的中值。MACD线位于信号线下方，指向较弱的短期动能。买家需要捍卫1.50美元，而突破1.60美元将测试需求是否能延续反弹。短暂的突破并不能确认持续的突破。

月度图表展示了更长周期的对比。XRP的RSI已回到此前两次上涨前的较低区间，但仍低于黄色移动平均线。对于XRP价格预测而言，月度确认条件是RSI在该均线之上发生交叉。当前均线已开始向上转折，但尚未交叉。月度信号并未确认四小时的动能。

来源：TradingView

@/0_70#

一个例子显示，XRP在接近0.18美元时，后来达到了近2美元。在另一个例子中，它在交易于0.37美元左右后，向3.30美元迈进。这些变化分别相当于其起始水平的约11.11倍和8.92倍。将这些倍数机械地应用于1.54美元，分别得出约17.11美元和13.74美元。这些比较描述的是过去的走势，而非本周期的目标价。这些简单计算使用的是四舍五入的历史价格。

在2025年回撤后，XRP仍处于长期移动平均线带内。类似的RSI区间出现在2017年和2021年左右，但这些设置始于不同的价格和市場条件。在当前月度图表上，XRP的RSI仍低于其移动平均线，使得高亮的交叉信号仍未确认。

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