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ZEC Fiscal policy, rather than crypto specific news, is driving the latest reversal in U.S. bitcoin funds
Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have begun to absorb billions of dollars after the U.S. Treasury Department announced it would expand its long-term treasury bond repurchase program, enough to erase a funding deficit that will persist for most of 2026. This shift contrasts sharply with the situation in mid-September. At the time, the Bitcoin ETF lost nearly $750 million in two days because the CLARITY Act failed to pass the Senate. However, nine trading days later, these funds have achieved net inflows for seven consecutive days.
How the deficit narrows
Since 2026, capital flows have mostly been negative and fell to a deficit low of about US$5.8 billion in mid-July. Over the following two months, the gap gradually narrowed and turned positive on September 22, the first time since May that the fund has seen positive year-to-date returns. BlackRock's IBIT has driven most of the recovery, with total weekly inflows reaching $1.2 billion, its second-best performance since October 2025; Fidelity's FBTC also recorded its strongest single-week performance since early September last year, reaching $701.7 million. Ark and 21Shares 'ARKB and Morgan Stanley's funds also made smaller contributions, both posting one of their best weekly performances since its inception.
Signs of slowdown in victory streak
此次连续流入始于9月17日，并持续至9月25日的七个交易日，在此期间增加了约30亿美元。但流入速度并不均匀：在开盘近10亿美元的一天和7.15亿美元的一天之后，随后的三天每日流入量逐日缩减，周末时的流入量仅为起始时的一小部分。彭博情报的Eric Balchunas回应了一个悬而未决的问题：这种反弹在多大程度上反映了真实需求，而非对冲基金利用ETF份额与期货之间的套利行为。他指出，此类交易只是造成数据背后的次要因素。NovaDius Wealth Management的Nate Geraci直接量化了财政部的影响，写道自回购公告以来，这些基金专门吸收了46亿美元。相关报道：比特币价格从87,000美元高点回落，山寨币上涨——下一步是什么？
这一反弹的一个后果超出了资金流动数据本身。由于典型ETF持有者的盈亏平衡点位于80,000美元左右，比特币重新突破该阈值意味着平均基金投资者自年初以来首次恢复盈利。连胜是否继续比其目前规模更重要。自2024年产品推出以来，总流入量已超过570亿美元，但即使以当前速度买入整整一年，2026年的累计金额也将远远落后于2025年基金收集的约210亿美元。
更广泛的加密ETF遵循相同模式
反弹不仅限于比特币。现货以太坊（ETH）基金从前一周的1.4亿美元损失转变为6.899亿美元的收益，由贝莱德的ETHA和富达的FETH引领。这是自8月下旬以来ETH产品的最强一周。Solana（SOL）基金看到了自身趋势集中在单一会话中：周五的流入是自去年10月基金推出以来最大的单日流入，主要由Bitwise的BSOL驱动。这使合并后的Solana基金资产达到新高。XRP基金本周增加了较少的金额，而Grayscale的Zcash（ZEC）产品在周四首次突破了100亿美元的资产大关。
